***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.11.2014.-30.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 10.2 9.9 8.4 1.3 65.2 62.2 6.2 8.2 9.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 10.0 9.6 8.4 1.4 66.7 63.5 6.1 7.9 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 11.3 10.9 8.5 1.4 65.6 62.3 7.2 9.2 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 3.5 4.4 6.2 1.2 64.0 60.8 1.0 2.9 4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.8 10.7 6.9 1.3 64.9 61.5 7.1 9.0 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.8 9.3 6.1 1.1 62.2 59.5 6.3 8.1 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 9.9 9.4 8.2 1.4 66.5 63.4 6.0 7.7 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 4.1 3.7 6.4 1.4 65.8 62.5 0.6 2.2 3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.4 11.3 7.6 1.3 65.0 61.6 7.7 9.6 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 10.8 10.4 7.0 1.4 65.2 61.9 6.9 8.8 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.0 11.0 6.8 1.3 65.0 61.5 7.1 9.2 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 11.2 10.7 6.7 1.3 65.2 62.0 7.3 9.1 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.8 6.5 1.2 63.7 61.0 7.1 9.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 11.6 11.1 8.1 1.5 65.5 62.4 7.3 9.3 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 7.7 8.3 6.3 1.0 61.8 59.4 5.5 7.1 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.5 11.3 6.5 1.2 63.8 60.7 7.7 9.7 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 9.3 8.9 8.1 1.4 66.9 63.6 5.5 7.2 8.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 8.5 8.0 7.0 1.4 65.1 62.2 5.1 6.7 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 10.4 10.1 8.5 1.5 66.9 63.5 6.4 8.2 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 8.1 7.6 5.5 1.5 66.8 63.8 3.9 5.8 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.8 8.1 1.3 64.9 61.6 7.2 9.1 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 9.9 9.7 8.3 1.5 67.3 63.7 6.0 7.8 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 10.1 9.9 8.7 1.5 66.8 63.2 6.3 8.1 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 11.7 11.3 7.9 1.4 65.1 62.0 7.6 9.5 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.8 9.8 7.1 1.3 65.7 62.5 6.4 8.1 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 10.4 9.9 6.3 1.2 64.3 61.7 6.8 8.5 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 11.2 10.9 7.8 1.4 65.9 62.8 7.2 9.1 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.2 8.9 6.3 1.0 62.4 59.5 5.9 7.6 9.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 8.1 7.5 6.4 1.5 65.7 62.9 3.8 5.7 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 10.1 9.6 8.5 1.4 66.3 63.1 6.2 7.9 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------