***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.12.2014.-07.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 4.6 7.3 6.8 0.6 56.8 56.3 4.9 6.6 8.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.6 6.7 0.8 59.1 58.0 4.2 5.8 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.7 7.7 6.9 0.7 57.2 56.6 5.2 7.0 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 2.8 2.6 4.6 0.5 55.8 55.5 0.0 2.0 3.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 7.7 7.5 5.2 0.5 55.8 55.4 5.1 6.9 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.5 7.4 4.8 0.6 56.1 55.9 4.9 6.8 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.3 6.6 0.8 58.6 57.5 4.1 5.6 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 2.4 2.6 5.0 0.7 57.7 57.4 0.1 1.8 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.5 6.1 0.6 56.2 55.7 5.9 7.8 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 7.8 7.9 5.6 0.7 57.3 56.9 5.3 7.1 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.6 5.2 0.5 55.6 55.3 5.1 7.0 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 8.1 8.1 5.2 0.6 56.2 55.9 5.4 7.4 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 7.9 7.8 5.0 0.5 55.8 55.7 5.2 7.2 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 9.6 8.7 6.7 1.0 60.1 58.9 5.7 7.6 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.4 4.7 0.5 55.8 56.0 4.2 5.8 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.4 8.2 5.0 0.5 55.2 55.0 5.6 7.6 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.8 6.0 6.6 1.0 60.5 58.7 3.7 5.2 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 7.3 6.3 5.7 0.9 59.4 58.8 3.9 5.5 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.9 6.9 0.9 59.3 58.1 4.3 6.0 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 6.7 5.8 4.4 1.1 61.7 61.1 2.4 4.4 6.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 5.0 7.6 6.4 0.6 56.1 55.6 5.2 7.0 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.8 6.8 1.1 61.5 59.3 4.2 5.8 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 8.0 7.2 7.1 0.9 59.5 58.3 4.7 6.3 7.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.8 6.6 0.9 58.7 57.9 6.1 7.9 9.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.6 5.4 0.7 57.4 56.6 4.3 5.9 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 7.7 7.7 4.8 0.6 56.4 56.2 5.5 7.1 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.6 6.2 0.7 57.8 57.0 5.1 6.8 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.2 7.0 4.7 0.5 55.1 55.1 4.7 6.5 8.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 6.6 5.7 5.3 1.1 61.4 60.5 2.5 4.5 6.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.6 6.8 0.8 58.2 57.3 4.3 5.9 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------