***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.12.2014.-14.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.6 4.9 0.6 56.7 56.2 3.2 4.9 6.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.0 5.1 4.8 0.7 58.1 57.0 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.6 5.1 0.7 57.6 56.8 3.9 5.8 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 2.9 1.4 3.0 0.6 57.2 57.1 -1.4 0.6 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.3 6.4 3.5 0.7 57.7 57.5 3.6 5.6 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 5.7 5.7 3.1 0.6 57.5 57.9 3.1 4.9 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 4.9 5.0 4.8 0.7 58.5 57.2 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 1.6 0.9 3.5 0.9 60.4 60.3 -1.8 -0.1 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.8 6.9 4.4 0.7 58.2 57.7 4.1 6.0 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.8 6.1 4.0 0.9 59.7 59.4 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.5 3.6 0.7 58.5 58.5 3.6 5.6 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.3 6.6 3.6 0.8 59.0 59.1 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.2 3.3 0.7 57.5 58.0 3.4 5.4 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 6.6 7.2 4.9 1.0 60.9 59.5 3.8 5.9 7.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 6.1 5.1 3.3 0.6 57.2 57.1 3.0 4.5 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.9 3.2 0.6 57.5 57.8 4.0 6.0 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 4.7 4.9 4.8 0.8 59.3 57.6 2.4 4.0 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 4.0 4.5 4.0 1.0 60.9 60.4 1.8 3.4 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.8 5.0 0.7 58.1 57.0 3.2 5.0 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 4.7 3.9 2.8 1.0 61.7 61.6 0.7 2.6 4.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.5 4.7 0.6 57.2 56.8 3.9 5.8 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 2.6 5.5 4.9 0.8 59.3 57.7 2.9 4.6 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.8 5.1 0.8 58.7 57.5 3.1 4.9 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 7.0 7.4 4.8 0.9 60.2 59.2 4.1 6.1 8.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.8 5.5 3.6 0.6 57.2 56.8 3.1 4.8 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.5 3.2 0.6 57.3 57.7 3.3 4.8 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.3 4.4 0.6 57.3 56.7 3.6 5.5 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 6.7 5.4 3.2 0.6 57.2 57.1 3.0 4.7 6.3 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 4.0 3.4 3.6 1.0 61.5 61.1 0.4 2.2 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 5.2 5.3 4.9 0.7 57.6 56.7 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------