***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.11.2014.-14.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 7.7 8.7 7.9 1.2 67.9 64.3 6.0 7.3 8.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 8.0 8.2 7.9 1.4 70.4 66.8 5.5 6.7 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 9.2 9.4 8.1 1.4 69.6 65.8 6.7 7.9 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 2.8 3.6 5.7 1.1 66.6 63.4 1.1 2.4 3.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 9.1 9.3 6.5 1.3 68.7 65.0 6.5 7.8 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 8.5 8.6 5.9 1.3 68.6 65.2 6.0 7.2 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 7.8 8.0 7.8 1.4 70.3 66.7 5.4 6.6 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 2.9 3.2 6.3 1.6 72.7 68.6 0.4 1.6 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 9.9 10.1 7.4 1.4 70.1 66.1 7.1 8.5 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 9.0 9.3 6.9 1.6 71.7 67.5 6.3 7.6 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 9.3 9.6 6.6 1.4 70.4 66.5 6.5 7.9 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 9.4 9.7 6.5 1.5 71.3 67.6 6.6 8.0 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 9.4 9.5 6.3 1.3 69.2 66.0 6.5 7.9 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 9.9 10.2 8.0 1.8 73.5 69.2 6.9 8.3 9.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 6.8 7.5 6.1 1.0 66.3 63.3 5.3 6.4 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 9.9 10.0 6.3 1.3 69.1 65.5 7.1 8.5 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 7.4 7.6 7.7 1.5 71.2 67.6 5.0 6.2 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 7.3 7.5 6.9 1.7 72.7 68.4 4.9 6.0 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 8.4 8.6 8.1 1.5 70.9 67.2 5.8 7.1 8.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 6.5 7.0 5.4 1.7 74.3 70.1 3.5 4.9 6.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 9.3 9.4 7.7 1.3 68.5 64.8 6.7 8.0 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 8.1 8.4 7.9 1.6 71.9 68.2 5.5 6.7 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 8.4 8.7 8.3 1.6 72.0 68.0 5.9 7.1 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 10.1 10.4 7.8 1.7 72.2 68.0 7.3 8.7 9.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 7.4 8.2 6.6 1.2 67.4 64.0 5.8 7.0 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 8.6 8.8 6.0 1.3 69.5 66.4 6.4 7.5 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 8.3 9.2 7.4 1.2 68.4 64.7 6.6 7.8 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 7.2 8.0 6.0 1.1 66.3 63.2 5.7 6.9 8.0 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 6.2 6.6 6.4 1.7 74.1 69.7 3.3 4.7 5.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 8.0 8.2 8.0 1.4 69.7 66.2 5.6 6.8 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------