***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.11.2014.-30.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.8 7.7 10.1 93.0 60.0 45.8 2.6 5.4 9.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.6 6.8 9.4 89.5 58.2 45.0 2.7 5.2 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.4 9.5 10.7 98.1 61.4 46.8 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 6.1 12.8 11.4 93.0 60.2 44.2 6.3 10.0 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.2 11.1 12.7 106.3 65.2 51.3 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.7 9.9 12.9 95.8 62.8 52.1 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 2.5 6.3 9.2 87.2 57.4 44.9 2.4 4.9 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 13.3 14.6 12.9 99.9 63.1 52.6 6.6 10.7 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.8 9.6 12.8 107.0 65.3 50.6 2.8 5.6 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.0 11.9 13.3 105.3 64.8 52.6 4.2 7.7 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.7 9.9 11.7 99.4 63.0 50.8 2.9 6.2 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.4 11.3 11.7 97.7 62.5 51.3 4.0 7.5 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.2 10.9 12.2 95.3 61.8 50.4 3.5 7.2 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.4 12.4 12.9 98.0 61.5 49.8 4.3 8.4 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 4.7 12.5 12.7 96.0 62.3 46.8 4.2 8.3 14.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.7 10.0 11.8 98.4 62.7 50.6 3.2 6.5 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.9 6.8 9.1 88.1 57.7 44.2 3.1 5.4 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.2 12.9 13.9 101.7 63.4 52.4 4.6 8.6 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.8 8.1 9.9 92.5 59.5 45.8 2.7 5.7 10.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.5 15.2 90.3 59.3 51.0 5.1 9.5 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.3 9.3 11.7 103.9 64.1 48.1 2.9 5.8 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 3.2 8.6 9.9 89.5 58.6 45.6 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 2.7 8.3 10.7 95.4 60.6 46.8 2.7 5.6 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.4 11.6 12.8 101.5 63.0 50.5 4.2 7.7 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 2.9 8.4 11.6 95.4 60.9 47.0 2.8 5.7 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.6 7.5 11.0 81.9 56.3 46.5 3.3 6.1 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.0 8.1 10.7 90.1 58.6 45.5 2.7 5.9 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 4.7 11.7 12.3 97.5 62.2 46.8 4.7 8.2 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 17.8 18.8 14.1 93.6 60.3 50.9 7.6 13.8 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.6 7.1 9.7 91.2 58.9 45.5 2.4 5.1 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------