***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.12.2014.-07.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.7 7.8 9.1 73.2 52.6 40.5 3.6 7.2 12.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.0 7.8 10.1 84.0 58.0 45.4 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.7 8.2 9.2 74.4 52.9 41.6 3.5 7.4 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.5 10.0 10.3 77.8 54.9 40.6 4.5 8.6 14.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 4.1 9.0 9.8 77.7 54.6 41.3 4.0 7.8 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 3.0 7.6 9.9 80.3 56.2 43.4 2.7 6.0 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.8 7.1 9.8 81.4 57.4 44.8 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 5.6 13.5 11.1 84.2 57.4 43.2 5.8 10.8 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.1 7.3 9.8 75.0 53.0 41.1 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 3.6 9.0 10.6 79.8 55.0 42.4 3.6 7.5 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 3.6 10.4 9.6 84.0 57.3 43.1 3.6 7.8 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 3.8 11.6 9.7 84.5 57.3 42.8 3.7 8.6 16.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 4.1 10.2 9.8 81.8 56.4 43.4 3.9 8.1 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 5.1 10.1 10.9 76.3 52.0 41.9 5.4 9.6 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 4.2 12.0 11.1 80.1 56.6 41.3 3.6 8.9 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.6 9.7 9.5 83.2 56.9 43.3 3.7 7.6 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.3 9.1 10.1 85.8 59.3 45.6 3.1 6.5 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 4.3 8.7 11.4 76.3 52.4 41.1 4.3 8.0 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.9 8.7 10.2 85.0 58.0 45.5 3.9 6.9 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.4 10.1 14.7 77.5 53.9 41.2 4.4 8.8 15.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 4.0 8.0 9.4 72.9 51.9 40.4 4.0 7.5 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 3.1 9.6 10.6 90.1 60.1 46.2 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.8 8.1 10.2 83.9 57.0 45.1 3.8 6.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.6 9.0 10.2 74.4 51.6 40.9 4.7 8.6 13.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.6 7.2 10.1 74.5 53.4 40.6 3.6 6.5 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 3.0 7.7 9.9 76.7 54.2 41.3 2.9 6.5 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.1 8.3 9.7 73.5 53.1 41.2 3.9 7.4 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.3 8.8 10.4 80.4 56.1 41.7 3.0 6.8 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 6.0 12.4 12.4 75.4 52.3 40.9 6.2 11.6 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.5 8.0 9.7 80.6 56.6 44.3 3.6 6.5 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------