***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.12.2014.-14.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.6 5.8 8.9 84.0 57.3 44.9 2.4 4.6 7.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.0 6.8 8.2 82.9 55.9 43.3 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.2 7.5 9.4 86.0 57.2 44.8 3.0 5.8 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.7 11.5 11.3 89.8 60.3 46.5 4.9 8.7 13.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 4.0 9.5 10.8 87.1 58.7 46.8 4.4 7.5 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.0 6.8 11.0 86.6 59.0 46.2 3.0 5.2 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.5 7.2 7.5 75.3 53.2 42.4 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 9.1 15.0 10.2 77.3 55.4 45.3 9.3 13.5 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.1 7.2 10.7 84.7 57.1 45.9 3.3 5.9 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.8 9.7 10.9 81.1 56.0 45.5 5.0 8.4 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.6 8.2 10.0 83.2 57.4 46.0 3.6 6.6 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.6 9.0 9.5 80.7 56.8 46.1 4.6 7.5 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.3 8.8 10.5 85.4 58.3 46.4 4.3 7.1 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.2 11.8 10.9 84.6 56.2 45.0 5.1 9.6 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.7 9.0 11.4 87.7 60.6 45.4 2.6 5.8 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.6 8.7 10.2 84.8 58.4 46.3 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.6 7.8 7.6 81.3 55.9 43.7 3.3 6.5 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.9 8.9 11.4 79.3 55.3 45.5 4.9 7.8 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.7 8.9 8.7 87.2 57.5 43.8 3.6 6.9 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.5 9.4 11.8 73.4 53.5 44.6 5.3 8.7 13.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.6 8.4 10.3 88.6 58.5 46.2 3.6 6.5 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.7 9.7 8.7 91.7 59.7 44.6 3.5 6.9 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.4 9.1 9.5 88.7 58.1 44.1 3.4 6.9 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 5.1 10.8 10.8 83.0 56.0 45.1 5.1 9.0 14.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 2.7 6.2 10.3 85.4 57.8 45.7 2.6 4.9 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 4.3 8.9 9.3 77.9 55.1 43.7 4.5 7.7 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.4 5.4 9.1 79.6 55.1 44.0 2.1 4.5 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.0 8.4 11.4 89.5 60.8 46.3 3.0 5.9 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.1 13.8 11.8 77.9 54.9 45.5 8.0 12.4 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.2 7.2 8.3 82.1 55.8 43.3 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------