***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.11.2014.-14.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 39.1 36.2 43.9 93.9 53.1 49.7 23.4 34.0 46.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 40.1 37.2 41.4 94.6 53.3 49.8 25.4 35.1 46.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 47.0 42.1 43.7 93.5 52.6 49.2 27.8 40.0 54.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 56.1 52.7 49.9 94.5 53.8 49.2 36.2 49.4 64.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 48.7 46.6 50.1 97.7 55.8 51.1 29.9 41.8 55.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 47.7 44.0 49.9 94.8 53.6 49.4 28.6 41.1 55.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 39.7 36.5 40.9 93.6 52.3 49.0 25.3 35.1 46.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 43.5 58.1 46.2 85.8 46.4 43.7 44.1 62.2 83.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 42.7 36.9 47.7 92.0 51.5 48.0 24.0 35.7 49.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 52.9 44.7 48.2 89.3 49.0 46.1 32.4 45.3 60.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 51.4 44.0 45.2 92.4 52.0 47.7 27.2 42.0 60.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 33.9 46.7 42.5 87.0 47.4 44.4 33.5 49.3 67.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 53.8 47.5 47.8 92.7 52.1 48.2 30.0 45.3 64.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 64.6 55.4 49.0 90.2 49.0 46.3 41.3 56.4 73.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 61.8 58.0 53.0 96.0 55.5 50.1 32.7 51.1 73.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 50.8 47.9 47.6 96.7 55.2 50.2 29.7 43.1 59.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 42.3 39.8 40.6 95.2 54.1 49.8 26.8 37.1 48.8 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 35.5 45.0 49.6 85.2 45.3 43.4 35.8 48.6 62.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 46.3 43.4 42.3 95.2 53.7 50.1 29.4 40.6 53.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 62.1 44.6 55.4 79.2 41.5 39.9 37.0 52.7 71.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 44.3 41.2 46.6 94.5 53.5 49.8 28.0 38.7 51.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 48.4 46.1 42.7 96.5 55.0 50.6 31.2 42.4 55.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 44.7 41.5 43.7 94.1 52.8 49.2 28.6 39.5 51.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 57.5 47.3 47.2 88.7 48.1 45.5 34.6 49.2 66.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 38.2 36.6 50.5 96.3 54.7 50.8 24.0 33.6 44.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 29.5 39.0 44.4 83.2 44.9 42.4 29.7 43.4 60.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 41.0 37.2 46.6 93.3 52.4 49.2 24.9 35.7 47.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 49.0 46.0 50.5 96.1 55.1 49.8 27.6 41.3 57.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 51.3 62.1 50.6 80.9 42.2 40.8 52.2 71.2 93.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 41.0 37.2 41.9 94.3 53.0 49.8 25.0 35.5 47.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------