***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2013.-24.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 9999.0 5.0 6.6 5.0 86.8 86.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 4.0 5.1 6.0 4.8 85.1 84.3 -0.8 1.0 2.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 5.7 7.1 6.3 4.9 86.8 86.0 1.1 2.8 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 1.2 1.9 3.2 3.9 82.3 81.7 -4.3 -2.3 -0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 3.2 4.1 4.5 4.6 85.2 84.5 -0.9 0.6 2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 2.6 3.4 2.0 4.0 84.1 83.5 -1.7 -0.1 1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 4.0 5.2 6.0 4.9 85.6 84.8 -0.6 1.1 2.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 -1.3 0.3 3.3 5.0 86.9 86.4 -6.3 -4.5 -2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 4.0 5.2 5.0 4.7 86.4 85.7 -0.2 1.3 2.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 3.1 4.2 4.0 4.9 86.0 85.4 -1.0 0.5 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 2.8 3.9 4.1 4.6 85.8 85.1 -1.2 0.3 1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 1.9 3.1 3.8 4.9 87.2 86.6 -1.9 -0.5 0.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 2.7 3.7 3.4 4.5 85.1 84.4 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 3.7 4.7 4.9 4.9 85.5 84.8 -0.2 1.2 2.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 3.6 4.1 4.0 3.8 82.0 81.3 -0.2 1.2 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 3.6 4.4 3.4 4.3 84.5 83.8 -0.4 1.1 2.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 3.7 4.5 5.5 4.6 83.8 83.1 -0.7 0.9 2.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 0.9 1.6 3.2 4.9 85.1 84.5 -2.5 -1.3 -0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 3.7 4.8 6.0 4.8 85.7 84.9 -0.6 1.0 2.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 -0.8 0.4 1.8 5.0 85.1 84.6 -6.2 -4.2 -2.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 3.8 5.1 5.9 4.7 86.1 85.3 -0.6 1.0 2.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 3.2 3.9 5.5 4.5 83.5 82.7 -1.1 0.5 1.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 3.4 4.6 5.9 4.9 86.7 85.9 -0.8 0.7 2.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 2.5 3.5 4.7 4.9 85.7 85.0 -1.2 0.2 1.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 3.8 5.0 5.5 4.8 86.3 85.6 -0.2 1.3 2.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 2.8 4.0 3.6 4.7 87.2 86.5 -0.9 0.5 1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 4.6 6.2 6.1 4.9 86.7 85.9 -0.6 1.3 3.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 2.2 2.6 3.3 3.6 80.5 79.9 -1.7 -0.2 1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 1.7 3.0 2.7 5.1 85.5 85.0 -3.6 -1.7 0.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 4.5 5.8 6.3 4.9 86.1 85.3 -0.4 1.4 3.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------