***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2013.-01.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 4.3 3.3 2.2 72.8 69.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 2.9 3.0 2.6 1.8 69.7 66.4 -0.3 1.3 2.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 4.6 5.1 2.9 2.2 73.0 69.4 1.4 2.9 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 -0.5 0.4 1.4 3.0 78.6 75.0 -4.2 -2.6 -1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 2.9 3.6 1.7 2.9 76.9 73.7 -0.9 0.8 2.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 2.3 3.1 0.5 3.3 80.1 76.7 -1.7 0.0 1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 2.7 2.7 2.6 1.8 69.4 66.1 -0.3 1.1 2.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 -2.2 -1.7 0.8 2.9 76.5 73.5 -5.8 -4.2 -2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 3.4 3.8 2.2 2.6 74.6 71.6 0.1 1.5 2.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 2.9 3.4 1.3 2.8 75.1 72.2 -0.6 1.0 2.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 2.9 3.6 1.6 3.1 78.4 75.0 -1.2 0.5 2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 1.9 2.6 1.5 3.2 78.5 75.3 -2.1 -0.4 1.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 2.4 3.1 1.2 3.2 79.1 75.6 -1.5 0.1 1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 3.1 3.2 1.6 2.0 69.7 67.0 0.3 1.6 2.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 3.1 4.0 1.8 2.9 79.4 75.6 -0.6 1.0 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 3.6 4.5 1.3 3.2 79.5 76.1 -0.3 1.4 2.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 2.2 2.1 2.2 1.5 66.3 63.3 -0.6 0.8 2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 0.9 1.1 0.7 2.6 73.2 70.3 -2.6 -1.1 0.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 2.9 3.0 2.6 1.9 70.5 67.1 -0.2 1.3 2.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 -1.2 -1.1 -0.6 2.4 71.9 69.0 -5.8 -3.8 -1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 3.2 3.6 2.8 2.4 74.0 70.5 -0.2 1.3 2.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 2.2 2.0 2.1 1.3 65.3 62.5 -0.6 0.8 2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 2.7 3.0 2.5 1.9 71.2 67.9 -0.2 1.2 2.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 2.5 2.7 1.7 2.3 72.7 69.7 -0.6 0.8 2.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 3.6 4.2 2.0 2.6 75.9 72.0 -0.1 1.5 3.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 2.5 3.4 1.4 3.2 79.9 75.9 -1.0 0.5 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 3.9 4.4 2.7 2.3 73.6 69.9 0.0 1.8 3.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 2.0 2.9 1.5 3.1 79.5 75.9 -1.8 -0.2 1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 0.6 0.8 0.2 2.5 72.3 69.4 -3.2 -1.5 0.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 3.2 3.4 2.8 1.9 71.0 67.5 0.0 1.5 2.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------