***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2013.-15.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 2.6 2.3 1.7 73.0 69.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.6 71.0 67.9 -1.0 0.1 1.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 3.0 3.4 2.1 1.7 74.3 70.3 0.8 1.8 2.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 -2.0 -1.7 -0.2 1.8 74.2 70.8 -4.6 -3.4 -2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 0.9 1.4 0.4 1.9 75.5 71.5 -1.4 -0.3 0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 0.3 0.8 -1.2 1.9 76.9 72.6 -2.1 -1.0 0.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.5 70.7 67.7 -1.0 0.1 1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 -3.7 -3.2 -0.5 2.0 76.0 71.3 -6.0 -4.9 -3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 1.6 1.9 1.1 1.8 74.9 70.6 -0.5 0.4 1.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 1.0 1.4 0.0 1.9 75.0 70.5 -1.2 -0.2 0.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 0.9 1.4 0.2 2.0 77.0 72.7 -1.5 -0.4 0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 0.1 0.6 0.0 2.0 77.4 72.7 -2.2 -1.1 -0.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 0.8 1.3 -0.3 1.9 77.1 72.5 -1.7 -0.6 0.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 1.6 1.8 0.8 1.7 72.2 68.5 -0.3 0.6 1.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 1.5 1.7 0.4 1.8 74.5 71.2 -1.1 0.0 1.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 1.6 2.1 -0.2 2.0 76.8 72.6 -0.7 0.3 1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 0.9 0.9 1.6 1.4 68.2 65.7 -1.2 -0.2 0.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 -0.7 -0.3 -0.5 1.8 73.4 69.1 -2.9 -1.9 -0.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.6 72.1 68.8 -0.8 0.2 1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 -3.3 -2.9 -1.8 1.7 72.6 67.9 -5.9 -4.6 -3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.7 73.9 69.8 -0.8 0.2 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 0.8 0.8 1.6 1.3 68.2 65.6 -1.2 -0.2 0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.7 73.4 69.7 -0.9 0.1 1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 0.8 1.1 0.7 1.8 74.1 70.0 -0.8 0.0 0.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 1.6 1.9 0.9 1.8 74.2 70.3 -0.8 0.3 1.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 0.7 1.2 -0.1 2.0 78.4 73.4 -1.3 -0.4 0.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.7 73.2 69.3 -0.7 0.4 1.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 0.2 0.5 0.0 1.8 74.2 71.0 -2.3 -1.2 -0.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 -1.4 -1.1 -1.0 1.9 73.4 68.9 -3.6 -2.6 -1.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.6 72.3 68.9 -0.7 0.4 1.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------