***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2013.-24.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 9999.0 12.4 12.1 4.6 84.2 83.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 11.8 12.8 11.7 4.5 83.1 82.3 6.5 8.5 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 13.4 14.7 12.5 4.8 84.4 83.5 7.4 9.6 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 7.8 7.8 8.9 3.7 77.4 76.9 1.3 3.7 6.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 13.2 14.3 11.2 4.8 83.5 82.7 7.3 9.5 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 12.5 13.4 10.1 4.8 83.0 82.4 6.7 8.8 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 3 97 100 11.6 12.7 11.6 4.5 84.0 83.1 6.4 8.3 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 5.6 6.2 9.9 4.5 81.4 80.9 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 14.4 15.9 12.4 5.2 85.1 84.4 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 13.3 14.3 11.2 4.9 83.0 82.3 7.1 9.4 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 13.7 15.1 11.5 5.1 84.5 83.8 7.3 9.7 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 13.5 14.6 10.6 4.7 83.1 82.5 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 13.7 15.3 11.4 5.2 85.6 84.9 7.6 9.8 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 14.4 15.5 12.4 5.0 83.0 82.2 7.7 10.1 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 11.3 11.2 9.6 3.2 74.9 74.5 5.9 8.0 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 14.1 15.4 11.3 5.1 85.0 84.4 8.2 10.3 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 11.1 11.9 11.1 4.2 82.1 81.2 6.1 7.9 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 11.4 12.2 10.9 4.9 82.1 81.4 6.0 8.0 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 12.4 13.4 12.0 4.6 83.3 82.4 6.7 8.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 9.8 10.3 8.5 4.1 79.1 78.5 4.0 6.2 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 13.5 14.8 12.4 4.8 83.9 83.1 7.6 9.8 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 11.9 12.7 11.3 4.2 81.4 80.5 6.4 8.5 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 3 97 100 12.3 13.4 12.4 4.7 83.8 82.9 6.7 8.8 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 14.3 15.5 12.3 5.1 83.6 82.8 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 12.2 12.9 10.8 4.3 81.9 81.2 6.9 8.8 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 5 95 100 12.4 13.3 9.7 4.2 82.2 81.6 7.3 9.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 3 97 100 13.2 14.2 11.6 4.5 83.7 82.9 7.6 9.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 12.5 12.5 9.6 3.6 76.6 76.1 6.3 8.7 10.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 4 96 100 10.0 11.0 10.3 4.9 82.7 82.0 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 11.9 12.9 12.0 4.6 84.0 83.1 6.6 8.5 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------