***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2013.-01.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 9999.0 10.0 8.0 1.7 67.0 63.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 8.1 9.0 7.4 1.4 64.2 61.3 5.9 7.6 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 9.4 10.5 8.0 1.5 65.2 62.3 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 3.1 4.4 6.2 1.8 68.2 65.2 0.8 2.5 4.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 10.6 10.6 6.8 1.8 67.1 64.0 6.9 8.7 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 9.8 9.8 6.2 1.9 68.0 65.1 6.2 7.9 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 8.0 9.0 7.4 1.4 64.8 61.8 5.8 7.5 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 2.5 3.3 6.0 1.4 63.7 61.2 0.4 2.0 3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 11.2 10.9 7.4 1.6 65.3 62.4 7.4 9.3 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 9.0 9.9 6.5 1.4 63.2 60.6 6.7 8.5 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 11.0 11.0 6.8 1.9 67.8 64.5 6.9 8.9 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 10.7 10.7 6.7 1.9 67.7 64.6 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 10.9 11.2 6.7 2.1 69.7 66.5 6.7 8.8 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 9.6 9.9 7.1 0.9 58.6 56.5 7.1 9.0 10.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 8.4 8.6 6.4 1.8 68.9 66.1 5.5 6.9 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 11.4 11.5 6.7 2.0 69.2 65.9 7.4 9.3 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 7.4 8.1 7.0 1.1 61.8 59.2 5.2 6.9 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 7.0 7.3 6.1 1.0 59.4 57.4 5.0 6.5 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 8.4 9.3 7.7 1.4 63.7 60.9 6.2 7.9 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.1 6.3 4.3 0.8 58.3 56.5 3.6 5.4 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 10.7 10.6 7.8 1.7 66.2 63.2 7.0 8.8 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 8.0 8.5 7.1 1.0 60.1 57.7 5.8 7.5 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 8.4 9.1 7.8 1.3 62.5 59.8 6.2 7.9 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 9.8 10.3 7.2 1.1 60.7 58.4 7.4 9.2 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 8.4 9.5 6.6 1.7 67.1 64.0 6.1 7.8 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 10.2 10.4 6.5 2.2 71.3 68.0 6.7 8.3 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 9.4 10.6 7.2 1.6 66.5 63.5 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 8.9 9.1 6.5 1.9 68.6 65.6 5.7 7.3 8.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 6.2 6.4 5.3 0.9 58.3 56.5 3.7 5.5 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 8.2 9.2 7.7 1.5 65.2 62.3 6.0 7.7 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------