***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2013.-08.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 5.4 5.6 0.0 49.8 50.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.7 5.3 0.1 51.3 52.1 3.9 5.6 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.6 6.9 5.8 0.1 50.5 51.3 5.0 6.8 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -0.4 2.1 4.0 0.2 51.8 51.7 -0.1 1.9 3.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.6 6.9 4.6 0.1 51.4 51.4 5.0 6.8 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.8 3.9 0.2 52.1 51.8 4.7 6.5 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.5 5.2 0.1 50.8 51.6 3.9 5.4 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 2.4 1.8 4.1 0.2 51.9 52.0 -0.1 1.6 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 5.5 7.7 5.3 0.0 50.4 50.9 5.7 7.6 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.8 6.9 4.7 0.1 50.8 51.2 5.1 6.8 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 7.6 7.1 4.6 0.3 52.7 52.2 5.0 6.8 8.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.5 4.5 0.3 53.0 52.5 5.2 7.2 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.7 7.2 4.2 0.3 52.5 52.1 5.1 6.9 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.5 5.5 0.1 50.9 51.7 5.5 7.4 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.7 5.9 4.2 0.3 53.1 52.7 4.0 5.6 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 8.2 7.7 4.4 0.3 53.0 52.3 5.4 7.4 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.1 5.1 0.1 51.1 52.0 3.6 5.0 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.1 4.4 0.0 49.9 50.7 3.6 5.1 6.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.0 5.6 0.2 51.5 52.3 4.0 5.8 7.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 1.9 4.3 2.8 0.0 50.4 51.2 2.4 4.3 6.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.6 6.8 5.6 0.0 49.9 50.6 5.1 6.8 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.8 5.8 5.4 0.2 51.7 52.6 4.1 5.7 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.2 5.9 0.2 51.6 52.4 4.4 6.0 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.8 5.4 0.0 50.3 51.0 5.8 7.7 9.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.7 4.3 0.0 49.7 50.3 4.1 5.7 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 7.5 7.1 4.1 0.3 53.0 52.8 5.3 6.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.3 6.5 4.9 -0.1 49.5 50.2 4.8 6.6 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 4.2 6.6 4.2 0.3 52.9 52.4 4.5 6.3 8.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 2.0 4.2 3.7 0.0 49.9 50.8 2.4 4.3 6.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.7 5.5 0.1 51.0 51.8 4.0 5.6 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------