***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2013.-15.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 4.6 4.1 -0.4 46.0 47.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.2 3.7 3.7 -0.5 45.1 47.0 2.5 4.2 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 6.4 5.2 4.3 -0.4 46.4 47.5 3.7 5.6 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -1.8 0.1 2.5 -0.3 47.5 48.1 -1.5 0.4 2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.0 5.0 3.1 -0.3 46.9 47.4 3.4 5.3 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 2.3 4.3 2.2 -0.5 45.3 46.1 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 4.7 3.4 3.6 -0.6 44.7 46.6 2.3 4.0 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -2.3 -0.7 2.6 -0.5 45.1 46.0 -1.8 -0.2 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.5 5.4 3.8 -0.4 46.5 47.1 3.9 5.8 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.8 4.6 3.2 -0.5 45.5 46.3 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.0 5.1 3.0 -0.3 46.7 47.1 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.9 5.0 2.9 -0.4 45.8 46.4 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.8 4.7 2.5 -0.5 45.5 46.2 3.3 5.2 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 3.2 5.2 4.0 -0.6 45.1 46.4 3.7 5.7 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.7 4.3 2.7 -0.2 48.1 48.9 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.4 5.5 2.7 -0.4 46.4 46.8 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.9 3.2 3.5 -0.7 44.2 46.4 2.2 3.8 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 1.4 2.9 3.0 -0.6 44.4 45.6 1.9 3.4 4.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 2.7 4.3 4.0 -0.5 45.6 47.2 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 0.2 1.9 1.5 -0.6 43.7 45.2 0.8 2.6 4.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 6.4 5.2 4.1 -0.4 46.7 47.4 3.7 5.6 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.4 3.9 3.8 -0.6 44.8 46.9 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.7 4.3 4.3 -0.5 45.8 47.2 3.0 4.7 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.4 5.3 3.9 -0.5 45.4 46.5 3.8 5.9 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 5.4 4.3 2.9 -0.4 46.3 47.1 3.0 4.6 6.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.7 4.4 2.4 -0.4 45.8 46.8 3.1 4.7 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 6.2 4.9 3.5 -0.5 45.6 46.7 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.6 4.5 2.7 -0.2 48.0 48.4 3.0 4.7 6.4 28 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 -0.2 1.4 2.3 -0.7 43.7 45.1 0.3 2.0 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.4 3.9 3.9 -0.5 45.5 47.2 2.6 4.3 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------