***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2013.-15.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 8.3 7.5 1.5 69.2 65.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 6.8 7.6 7.1 1.4 67.2 64.4 5.3 6.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 9.0 9.1 7.7 1.5 69.1 65.8 6.5 7.7 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 3.4 3.4 5.4 1.4 67.3 64.7 0.9 2.1 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 8.9 9.1 6.4 1.6 70.0 66.7 6.3 7.6 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 8.3 8.5 5.6 1.6 70.5 67.0 5.8 7.0 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 6.6 7.5 6.9 1.3 67.5 64.6 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 1.8 2.7 5.7 1.4 68.0 64.8 0.3 1.4 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 9.6 9.8 7.2 1.6 70.1 66.5 6.9 8.2 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 8.7 8.8 6.4 1.5 68.4 65.1 6.2 7.4 8.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 44 56 100 9.0 9.4 6.5 1.7 71.5 67.8 6.4 7.7 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 45 55 100 9.0 9.3 6.2 1.6 70.6 67.1 6.5 7.8 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 9.1 9.5 6.2 1.8 72.7 68.8 6.4 7.7 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 8.5 9.4 7.2 1.4 66.5 63.4 6.8 8.1 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 7.4 7.3 5.7 1.3 66.7 64.5 5.2 6.3 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 9.6 10.0 6.3 1.8 72.2 68.4 6.9 8.2 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 6.2 6.9 6.7 1.2 65.4 62.9 4.8 5.9 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 6.1 6.8 6.1 1.3 66.3 63.1 4.6 5.7 6.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 7.2 8.1 7.3 1.4 67.5 64.6 5.6 6.8 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 5.1 5.9 4.2 1.1 64.5 61.6 3.4 4.7 6.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 9.1 9.2 7.5 1.5 69.4 66.1 6.5 7.8 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 6.9 7.5 6.9 1.2 65.0 62.5 5.3 6.5 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 7.2 8.1 7.6 1.4 67.7 64.6 5.7 6.9 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 9.7 9.7 7.2 1.4 67.6 64.3 7.1 8.4 9.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 8.0 8.0 6.1 1.4 68.3 65.3 5.6 6.8 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 8.4 8.7 5.7 1.6 71.6 67.9 6.2 7.3 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 8.9 9.0 6.8 1.4 68.7 65.4 6.4 7.6 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 7.9 7.9 5.8 1.4 67.5 64.9 5.6 6.7 7.8 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 4.9 5.7 5.4 1.3 66.3 63.0 3.2 4.5 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 45 55 100 7.7 7.8 7.3 1.4 68.2 65.2 5.4 6.5 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------