***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2013.-24.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 10.8 11.6 90.6 59.4 54.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.5 11.4 13.2 112.3 67.2 59.9 2.6 5.9 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 9.3 9.0 11.2 86.4 56.2 51.5 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 12.9 15.2 14.4 99.0 62.1 56.2 5.4 10.3 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 9.9 10.0 12.9 86.2 57.0 53.1 3.9 7.9 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 13.4 15.0 13.3 87.1 58.9 54.7 6.3 11.4 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 13.0 11.8 13.2 115.6 68.4 61.0 2.9 6.1 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 19.0 17.8 13.0 77.1 53.8 50.3 8.2 15.5 26.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 9.6 7.2 10.2 68.2 48.7 45.6 3.6 7.6 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 10.2 7.5 10.8 67.0 48.2 45.2 3.7 8.0 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 12.2 11.3 11.5 77.8 54.5 50.0 5.0 9.8 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 12.1 12.4 12.5 80.5 56.4 52.5 4.5 9.7 17.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 13.8 14.6 13.5 83.5 57.3 53.5 5.9 11.4 19.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 15.3 12.6 11.8 79.3 51.9 47.5 6.0 11.8 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 22.9 26.7 19.6 138.4 74.7 68.2 4.6 10.3 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 11.8 13.0 13.2 87.8 58.8 54.2 5.3 9.9 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 13.8 14.2 14.2 125.5 71.6 62.7 3.7 7.1 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 12.5 9.5 12.2 71.2 49.1 46.3 4.8 10.0 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 10.0 11.8 12.6 104.0 63.7 57.2 3.9 7.6 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 13.6 15.5 20.3 92.9 58.7 55.4 4.9 11.0 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 9.3 7.5 10.2 72.6 50.5 46.7 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 15.2 14.9 14.4 119.3 69.5 61.2 4.5 8.2 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 9.1 8.8 11.4 88.1 56.6 51.2 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 11.4 8.3 10.9 72.4 48.9 45.3 4.0 8.7 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 8.4 9.0 13.0 90.1 58.7 54.3 3.6 6.9 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 14.1 17.9 16.5 98.5 63.1 59.4 5.6 11.4 19.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 8.5 9.2 12.2 91.3 59.3 54.2 3.5 6.7 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 11.7 15.7 15.4 109.0 65.8 59.5 4.8 9.4 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 18.7 16.6 14.2 77.3 51.8 48.7 8.1 15.6 26.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.0 10.7 12.6 104.6 64.2 57.9 3.3 6.6 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------