***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2013.-01.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 7.3 16.9 116.4 68.3 60.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 7.4 9.1 14.9 107.4 64.7 56.8 2.9 5.7 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 9.3 12.6 16.6 112.7 66.9 58.5 3.6 7.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 17.0 18.1 20.2 128.7 72.3 62.2 5.9 10.0 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 9.6 13.9 18.7 119.7 69.6 60.0 4.0 7.6 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 8.6 13.5 20.7 128.5 72.3 62.9 3.8 6.9 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 7.2 9.3 15.0 109.5 65.7 58.3 3.2 5.8 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 12.7 17.5 20.7 124.5 71.0 60.7 7.1 11.0 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 7.9 10.8 18.0 112.6 67.3 57.9 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 10.6 14.7 19.5 116.8 68.5 58.8 5.1 8.8 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 9.5 14.1 18.0 120.8 70.0 59.9 3.8 7.4 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 11.8 17.6 18.5 124.6 71.2 60.5 5.1 9.3 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 11.0 16.2 19.8 126.2 71.6 61.9 5.1 8.8 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 11.9 13.8 17.8 102.6 62.7 55.0 4.6 9.1 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 21.0 25.4 22.2 143.3 76.2 64.3 5.2 10.5 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 9.8 14.6 18.6 124.1 71.0 60.6 4.1 7.7 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 7.9 9.2 14.5 105.3 64.0 56.1 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 12.5 16.6 21.3 115.6 67.8 58.2 5.9 10.2 15.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 8.3 10.2 14.9 106.0 64.1 56.1 2.9 6.1 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 14.0 20.3 28.6 126.4 71.4 61.0 6.3 11.1 17.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 8.9 11.7 17.0 110.8 66.6 57.4 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.0 10.2 14.8 102.5 62.3 54.2 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 7.9 9.5 15.1 102.8 62.9 54.9 2.7 5.8 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.9 15.4 18.6 110.8 66.1 57.1 5.5 9.6 15.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 8.3 11.8 18.6 117.0 68.6 60.6 3.0 6.2 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 11.2 12.1 20.3 128.6 72.3 62.5 3.7 6.4 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 8.8 12.5 17.8 116.0 68.2 60.8 3.5 7.0 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 16.7 18.8 20.7 134.0 73.7 62.0 5.7 9.7 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.4 25.2 23.6 117.5 68.4 58.5 8.1 14.6 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 7.5 9.8 15.5 110.1 65.8 57.9 3.0 5.8 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------