***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2013.-15.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 39.6 52.0 102.5 58.0 52.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 38.7 40.4 50.4 104.1 59.4 54.4 24.7 34.2 45.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 45.2 44.2 51.5 101.0 56.6 51.2 26.5 38.7 53.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 54.3 58.5 59.6 107.0 61.9 54.7 35.2 48.2 62.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 45.3 46.7 56.7 103.4 59.0 52.7 28.5 40.0 53.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 43.1 45.9 59.7 104.5 60.0 55.3 27.0 38.1 51.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 39.0 41.7 50.7 105.8 60.8 55.3 25.0 34.5 45.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 69.2 71.7 61.8 104.4 59.8 53.7 43.6 60.5 80.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 40.9 38.3 54.1 98.4 54.6 49.4 23.3 34.6 48.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 50.1 48.9 58.0 100.2 56.2 50.9 31.4 44.0 58.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 47.6 47.8 53.5 101.8 57.9 52.0 26.2 40.2 56.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 53.4 55.3 55.3 103.0 58.9 53.1 31.5 46.2 63.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 49.4 51.3 58.4 102.8 58.7 53.7 28.4 42.6 60.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 64.7 59.4 57.9 98.4 53.7 49.5 39.8 55.6 73.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 80.1 79.6 66.7 119.4 70.1 60.5 31.6 49.9 72.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 45.9 47.7 55.5 103.7 59.5 53.7 27.1 39.5 54.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 40.9 44.0 50.6 107.4 62.2 56.8 26.0 36.0 47.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 53.6 53.4 64.1 102.0 57.6 52.5 34.8 47.3 61.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 44.5 44.4 50.2 102.0 57.3 52.6 28.0 39.0 52.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 59.2 67.4 87.0 111.3 65.0 58.0 35.8 50.8 68.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 43.7 40.7 51.8 97.8 54.0 49.2 27.1 38.0 50.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 46.8 48.2 51.7 104.4 59.6 54.8 30.0 41.0 53.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 42.7 39.8 50.3 98.2 53.5 49.4 26.2 37.2 50.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 56.7 53.9 57.1 99.6 55.3 50.6 33.8 48.6 66.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 36.9 37.7 57.4 102.3 57.9 52.5 23.4 32.7 43.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 47.6 52.0 62.1 105.9 61.1 55.7 28.5 41.7 57.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 40.9 41.4 55.1 102.2 57.8 52.4 25.1 35.9 48.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 47.7 54.2 60.4 110.4 64.2 56.5 27.2 40.6 56.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 79.0 81.6 71.3 104.3 59.5 53.7 50.5 69.4 91.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 40.3 41.0 50.7 103.1 58.4 53.2 24.7 35.1 47.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------