***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2019.-24.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 4.4 7.4 9.6 6.3 95.0 94.5 0.1 1.7 3.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 4.1 7.2 8.7 5.8 93.9 93.4 -0.8 1.0 2.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 5.8 8.6 8.9 5.6 93.4 92.8 1.1 2.8 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 1.2 4.9 6.3 5.6 94.2 93.6 -4.3 -2.3 -0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 3.2 5.5 7.2 5.4 92.8 92.3 -0.9 0.6 2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 2.6 5.7 4.5 5.3 95.1 94.1 -1.7 -0.1 1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 4.1 7.0 8.8 5.9 93.6 93.1 -0.6 1.1 2.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 -1.3 1.0 4.1 4.6 90.4 89.4 -6.3 -4.5 -2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 4.0 6.7 6.6 5.0 93.7 92.9 -0.2 1.3 2.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 3.1 5.0 4.7 4.5 90.7 89.8 -1.0 0.5 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 2.9 5.1 6.2 4.9 92.5 91.8 -1.2 0.3 1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 1.9 3.9 5.3 4.9 91.6 90.7 -1.9 -0.5 0.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 2.7 4.4 4.5 4.2 89.4 88.3 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 3 97 100 3.7 4.9 5.2 3.9 86.5 85.4 -0.2 1.2 2.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 3.6 7.0 8.2 5.8 96.7 96.1 -0.2 1.2 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 3.6 5.8 5.6 4.9 92.4 91.6 -0.4 1.1 2.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 3.7 6.2 8.1 5.5 92.7 92.2 -0.7 0.9 2.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 2 98 100 0.8 1.7 3.5 3.7 85.5 84.5 -2.5 -1.3 -0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 3.8 6.4 8.3 5.5 93.3 92.7 -0.6 1.0 2.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 -0.9 0.2 2.7 3.8 84.3 83.3 -6.2 -4.2 -2.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 3.9 6.6 8.0 5.3 93.4 92.7 -0.6 1.0 2.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 3.2 5.2 7.8 4.9 91.0 90.4 -1.1 0.5 1.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 3.4 5.7 7.7 5.1 92.4 91.8 -0.8 0.7 2.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 2.5 3.8 5.4 4.1 87.9 86.9 -1.2 0.2 1.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 3.9 6.9 9.1 6.3 95.2 94.7 -0.2 1.3 2.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 2.9 4.6 4.9 4.7 90.7 89.7 -0.9 0.5 1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 4.7 8.4 9.4 6.4 94.6 94.0 -0.6 1.3 3.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 2.3 4.8 6.5 5.4 94.0 93.3 -1.7 -0.2 1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 3 97 100 1.6 2.9 2.9 3.7 85.4 84.3 -3.6 -1.7 0.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 4.5 7.8 9.1 6.0 94.3 93.8 -0.4 1.4 3.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------