***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 3.8 5.7 6.1 4.3 88.2 83.2 -0.2 1.4 2.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 3.5 5.3 5.6 4.2 88.1 83.7 -0.3 1.3 2.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 12 88 100 5.3 6.9 5.9 4.2 87.7 83.3 1.4 2.9 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 -0.3 1.4 3.0 3.9 85.2 80.4 -4.2 -2.6 -1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 3.2 4.9 4.2 4.2 86.3 81.9 -0.9 0.8 2.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 2.4 4.0 1.9 4.1 85.9 82.4 -1.7 0.0 1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 3.2 4.8 5.5 4.1 87.3 82.2 -0.3 1.1 2.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 -1.9 -0.3 2.5 4.4 86.9 83.3 -5.8 -4.2 -2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 3.7 5.3 4.2 4.2 87.1 82.8 0.1 1.5 2.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 3.3 5.0 3.0 4.4 87.0 83.2 -0.6 1.0 2.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 3.1 4.8 3.7 4.3 86.3 82.4 -1.2 0.5 2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 2.1 3.7 3.1 4.3 85.8 81.9 -2.1 -0.4 1.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 2.5 3.9 2.6 4.0 84.6 80.9 -1.5 0.1 1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 3.7 5.1 4.1 4.3 87.5 84.1 0.3 1.6 2.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 3.3 4.9 4.3 3.7 85.5 80.2 -0.6 1.0 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 3.8 5.2 3.0 4.1 85.0 81.2 -0.3 1.4 2.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 2.9 4.4 5.3 4.0 87.0 82.5 -0.6 0.8 2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 1.2 2.8 2.4 4.3 86.4 83.2 -2.6 -1.1 0.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 3.5 5.1 5.6 4.2 88.3 84.3 -0.2 1.3 2.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 -0.6 1.5 1.8 4.5 87.1 84.1 -5.8 -3.8 -1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 3.6 5.3 5.2 4.1 86.8 82.1 -0.2 1.3 2.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 3.0 4.6 5.4 4.0 87.9 84.0 -0.6 0.8 2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 3.4 4.9 5.4 4.2 88.4 84.6 -0.2 1.2 2.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 2.9 4.3 3.8 4.2 86.8 83.1 -0.6 0.8 2.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 4.0 5.8 5.2 4.2 87.4 82.4 -0.1 1.5 3.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 2.8 4.2 2.8 4.2 85.9 82.0 -1.0 0.5 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 4.4 6.5 5.8 4.3 87.4 82.1 0.0 1.8 3.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 2.2 3.6 3.2 3.8 84.3 79.8 -1.8 -0.2 1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 1.1 2.8 2.1 4.5 87.2 84.1 -3.2 -1.5 0.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 3.8 5.6 5.8 4.2 88.4 83.8 0.0 1.5 2.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------