***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2019.-15.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 2.2 3.6 4.8 3.6 91.2 88.3 -0.4 0.6 1.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 1.9 3.3 4.4 3.4 90.6 87.9 -1.0 0.1 1.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 3.6 4.9 4.6 3.4 90.7 88.1 0.8 1.8 2.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 -1.5 0.1 2.0 3.5 90.5 87.4 -4.6 -3.4 -2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 1.5 2.9 2.8 3.4 90.2 87.3 -1.4 -0.3 0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 0.7 2.3 0.6 3.3 90.7 87.0 -2.1 -1.0 0.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 1.8 3.2 4.4 3.4 90.3 87.3 -1.0 0.1 1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 -3.2 -2.0 0.9 3.2 89.1 85.8 -6.0 -4.9 -3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 2.1 3.4 2.9 3.3 90.5 87.5 -0.5 0.4 1.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 1.5 2.7 1.4 3.2 89.5 86.3 -1.2 -0.2 0.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 1.4 2.8 2.2 3.4 89.9 86.9 -1.5 -0.4 0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 0.6 1.8 1.5 3.3 89.3 86.1 -2.2 -1.1 -0.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 9 91 100 1.2 2.4 1.0 2.9 88.0 84.2 -1.7 -0.6 0.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 6 94 100 2.1 3.0 2.4 3.1 87.6 84.8 -0.3 0.6 1.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 1.8 3.6 3.4 3.4 91.8 88.5 -1.1 0.0 1.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 6 94 100 2.1 3.3 1.6 3.3 89.5 86.3 -0.7 0.3 1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 1.5 2.7 4.2 3.3 89.5 86.6 -1.2 -0.2 0.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 6 94 100 -0.1 1.0 0.7 3.1 87.7 84.5 -2.9 -1.9 -0.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 1.8 3.1 4.3 3.3 90.6 88.0 -0.8 0.2 1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 11 89 100 -2.6 -1.4 -0.2 3.0 86.9 83.3 -5.9 -4.6 -3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 1.9 3.1 3.9 3.3 90.3 87.3 -0.8 0.2 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 1.4 2.6 4.1 3.2 89.3 86.5 -1.2 -0.2 0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 1.7 2.9 4.1 3.3 90.3 87.8 -0.9 0.1 1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 5 95 100 1.3 2.1 2.3 3.1 88.7 85.8 -0.8 0.0 0.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 2.1 3.6 4.0 3.6 91.3 88.3 -0.8 0.3 1.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 1.0 2.1 1.1 3.1 88.7 85.1 -1.3 -0.4 0.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 2.3 3.9 4.5 3.5 90.9 87.8 -0.7 0.4 1.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 0.6 2.1 2.2 3.4 90.1 87.0 -2.3 -1.2 -0.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 -0.8 0.2 0.4 3.1 87.6 84.3 -3.6 -2.6 -1.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 2.2 3.7 4.6 3.5 91.1 88.4 -0.7 0.4 1.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------