***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2019.-24.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 12.9 14.9 14.5 5.0 88.5 88.0 6.9 9.1 11.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 11.9 13.8 14.7 5.1 88.4 87.9 6.5 8.5 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 13.5 15.2 15.1 5.1 86.9 86.5 7.4 9.6 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 7.4 7.8 9.4 3.3 77.6 76.9 1.3 3.7 6.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 13.3 14.2 12.6 4.3 82.8 82.3 7.3 9.5 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 12.5 13.4 11.4 4.3 82.7 82.3 6.7 8.8 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 11.7 13.7 14.6 5.2 89.1 88.6 6.4 8.3 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 5.7 5.9 11.4 3.9 79.2 79.0 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 14.5 15.6 13.7 4.5 83.9 83.5 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 13.4 14.1 12.7 4.4 81.9 81.6 7.1 9.4 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 13.8 14.7 13.5 4.5 82.9 82.5 7.3 9.7 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 13.6 14.1 12.0 4.0 81.0 80.6 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 13.8 14.8 13.5 4.6 83.6 83.3 7.6 9.8 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 14.4 15.5 14.4 4.8 83.0 82.5 7.7 10.1 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 11.6 12.3 11.6 3.5 81.7 81.2 5.9 8.0 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 14.1 15.2 13.0 4.6 84.0 83.6 8.2 10.3 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 11.2 13.0 14.0 4.9 88.3 87.9 6.1 7.9 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 11.5 12.1 12.4 4.5 81.4 81.0 6.0 8.0 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 12.5 14.3 14.8 5.0 87.4 86.9 6.7 8.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 10.1 10.4 10.5 4.0 79.8 79.5 4.0 6.2 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 13.7 15.0 14.5 4.7 84.9 84.5 7.6 9.8 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 12.2 13.7 14.0 4.6 86.2 85.7 6.4 8.5 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 12.4 13.8 14.7 4.8 85.7 85.3 6.7 8.8 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 14.4 15.4 14.4 4.8 83.5 83.1 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 12.3 13.6 13.2 4.6 85.8 85.2 6.9 8.8 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 12.6 13.2 11.2 3.9 81.8 81.6 7.3 9.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 13.3 15.3 14.3 5.1 88.5 88.1 7.6 9.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 12.5 12.8 10.5 3.4 78.0 77.5 6.3 8.7 10.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 10.1 10.7 11.9 4.4 81.2 80.9 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 12.0 13.9 14.9 5.2 88.8 88.3 6.6 8.5 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------