***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 10.7 12.5 11.5 4.3 86.9 82.5 6.1 7.9 9.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 10.1 12.1 11.5 4.4 88.0 84.0 5.9 7.6 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 11.5 13.4 12.0 4.4 86.4 82.0 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 4.7 5.9 7.6 3.3 80.2 75.4 0.8 2.5 4.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 11.3 13.0 9.9 4.1 84.7 80.2 6.9 8.7 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 10.5 12.2 9.3 4.2 85.5 80.9 6.2 7.9 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 10.1 12.2 11.4 4.4 88.4 84.4 5.8 7.5 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 4.4 5.9 9.5 4.2 85.4 81.8 0.4 2.0 3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 12.0 13.8 11.0 4.3 85.9 81.4 7.4 9.3 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 11.1 12.8 10.4 4.4 85.7 81.7 6.7 8.5 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 11.8 13.7 10.6 4.4 85.4 81.1 6.9 8.9 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 11.5 13.1 9.9 4.2 85.7 81.8 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 11.8 13.9 10.6 4.6 86.6 83.0 6.7 8.8 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 11.7 13.4 11.6 4.5 85.1 81.1 7.1 9.0 10.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 8.7 9.6 8.8 3.0 79.0 74.7 5.5 6.9 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 12.2 14.0 10.2 4.4 85.7 81.4 7.4 9.3 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 9.5 11.5 11.1 4.3 88.1 84.2 5.2 6.9 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 8.6 10.1 10.4 4.5 85.6 81.9 5.0 6.5 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 10.5 12.5 11.7 4.4 87.5 83.4 6.2 7.9 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 8.2 9.9 8.9 4.4 86.3 83.6 3.6 5.4 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 11.5 13.3 11.4 4.1 85.3 80.7 7.0 8.8 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 10.1 12.0 11.2 4.2 87.3 83.4 5.8 7.5 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 10.4 12.2 11.9 4.4 86.6 82.5 6.2 7.9 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 11.8 13.6 11.6 4.6 85.9 81.8 7.4 9.2 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 10.2 11.9 10.2 4.0 85.1 80.5 6.1 7.8 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 10.8 12.5 9.4 4.1 86.8 84.1 6.7 8.3 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 11.5 13.5 11.2 4.3 87.4 83.1 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 9.3 10.3 8.3 3.2 79.2 74.7 5.7 7.3 8.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 8.2 10.0 10.0 4.6 86.3 83.1 3.7 5.5 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 10.2 12.3 11.7 4.5 88.1 83.9 6.0 7.7 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------