***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2019.-08.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 8.5 8.9 8.0 2.3 72.4 67.5 4.7 6.5 8.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 7.3 7.7 7.9 2.2 71.4 67.1 3.9 5.6 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 8.9 9.2 8.4 2.3 71.7 67.0 5.0 6.8 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 4.0 5.0 5.9 2.6 75.1 70.1 -0.1 1.9 3.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 8.7 9.3 6.7 2.4 72.9 68.2 5.0 6.8 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 8.4 8.6 6.1 2.0 68.8 65.1 4.7 6.5 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 7.1 7.4 7.8 2.2 71.4 67.0 3.9 5.4 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 44 56 100 3.3 3.8 6.3 2.2 71.1 67.0 -0.1 1.6 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 9.6 10.1 7.4 2.3 71.7 67.0 5.7 7.6 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 8.6 9.1 6.9 2.3 71.1 66.6 5.1 6.8 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 8.7 9.3 6.8 2.3 72.3 67.9 5.0 6.8 8.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 45 55 100 9.0 9.7 6.6 2.2 71.6 67.4 5.2 7.2 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 8.8 9.3 6.2 2.1 70.9 66.8 5.1 6.9 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 9.4 9.6 7.7 2.1 68.8 64.5 5.5 7.4 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 7.5 8.1 6.6 2.6 75.0 70.1 4.0 5.6 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 9.4 10.0 6.5 2.3 72.1 67.8 5.4 7.4 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 6.5 6.9 7.6 2.1 70.3 66.2 3.6 5.0 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 45 55 100 6.5 6.9 6.9 2.2 69.8 65.5 3.6 5.1 6.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 7.9 8.1 8.1 2.3 71.1 66.9 4.0 5.8 7.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 6.3 6.6 5.4 2.0 70.3 66.5 2.4 4.3 6.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 8.7 9.1 7.9 2.3 71.7 66.8 5.1 6.8 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 7.4 7.6 7.7 2.1 70.0 66.0 4.1 5.7 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 7.9 8.0 8.4 2.2 70.3 66.0 4.4 6.0 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 9.7 10.1 7.7 2.3 70.5 65.8 5.8 7.7 9.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 7.4 8.0 6.8 2.3 73.0 68.0 4.1 5.7 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 46 54 100 8.3 8.9 6.1 2.1 72.6 68.4 5.3 6.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 8.5 8.9 7.6 2.2 72.0 67.1 4.8 6.6 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 8.2 8.9 6.3 2.6 74.3 69.6 4.5 6.3 8.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 45 55 100 6.1 6.4 6.3 2.0 69.1 65.1 2.4 4.3 6.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 7.5 7.8 8.0 2.3 72.1 67.7 4.0 5.6 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------