***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2019.-15.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 6.7 6.7 6.7 1.8 68.0 63.7 3.1 4.8 6.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 4.7 5.8 6.6 1.8 67.1 63.5 2.5 4.2 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 6.2 7.7 7.2 2.0 68.5 64.2 3.7 5.6 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 2.6 2.8 4.5 2.2 71.0 65.5 -1.5 0.4 2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 7.4 7.6 5.4 2.1 70.0 64.6 3.4 5.3 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.6 6.5 4.8 1.7 65.7 61.0 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 4.5 5.6 6.5 1.7 66.9 63.4 2.3 4.0 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 0.4 1.4 5.1 1.8 67.2 62.4 -1.8 -0.2 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.6 8.0 6.2 2.0 68.9 63.7 3.9 5.8 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 5.7 7.0 5.7 1.9 67.7 62.7 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 7.6 7.7 5.5 2.0 69.6 64.2 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 7.6 7.6 5.4 1.9 68.6 63.5 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 7.5 7.3 4.9 1.8 67.6 62.4 3.3 5.2 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 6.3 7.7 6.7 1.9 66.1 62.1 3.7 5.7 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 6.1 6.3 5.3 2.2 71.1 65.6 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 8.3 8.2 5.2 2.0 69.2 63.8 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 4.2 5.2 6.4 1.7 66.2 63.0 2.2 3.8 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 3.9 4.7 5.7 1.8 65.7 61.3 1.9 3.4 4.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 5.3 6.6 6.9 1.9 67.5 63.7 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 3.4 4.1 4.0 1.5 64.1 59.8 0.8 2.6 4.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.2 7.6 6.7 1.9 68.5 63.7 3.7 5.6 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 4.8 6.0 6.6 1.7 66.8 63.4 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 5.2 6.5 7.3 2.0 67.8 63.9 3.0 4.7 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 6.5 7.9 6.6 2.0 67.2 62.7 3.8 5.9 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 6.4 6.4 5.4 1.8 67.6 63.0 3.0 4.6 6.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 6.6 6.5 4.8 1.7 68.4 63.2 3.1 4.7 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.1 7.2 6.2 1.7 66.8 62.6 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 6.8 7.0 4.9 2.2 70.8 65.3 3.0 4.7 6.4 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 2.7 3.4 5.1 1.6 64.3 60.2 0.3 2.0 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 4.9 6.1 6.6 1.9 67.9 64.1 2.6 4.3 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------