***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2019.-15.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 9.1 10.5 10.2 3.4 88.7 85.6 5.8 7.1 8.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 8.4 9.7 10.2 3.4 88.5 85.6 5.3 6.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 9.7 11.0 10.7 3.4 88.2 85.1 6.5 7.7 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 4.1 5.0 6.8 2.8 84.4 80.6 0.9 2.1 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 9.5 10.8 8.7 3.2 87.0 83.6 6.3 7.6 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 8.8 10.0 7.9 3.0 86.3 82.2 5.8 7.0 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 8.3 9.5 10.1 3.4 88.8 86.1 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 3.2 4.3 8.1 3.0 85.5 82.0 0.3 1.4 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 10.3 11.7 9.6 3.3 87.3 83.9 6.9 8.2 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 9.4 10.6 8.9 3.3 86.6 83.1 6.2 7.4 8.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 9.8 11.1 9.1 3.3 87.1 83.8 6.4 7.7 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 9.7 10.9 8.5 3.1 86.4 82.9 6.5 7.8 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 9.6 11.1 8.8 3.3 87.6 84.0 6.4 7.7 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 10.2 11.3 10.1 3.3 85.8 82.6 6.8 8.1 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 7.9 8.8 8.1 2.8 84.8 81.1 5.2 6.3 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 10.2 11.7 8.7 3.3 87.6 84.2 6.9 8.2 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 7.8 8.9 9.8 3.2 88.2 85.2 4.8 5.9 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 7.4 8.4 8.8 3.2 85.9 82.4 4.6 5.7 6.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 8.9 10.0 10.4 3.4 88.1 85.1 5.6 6.8 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 6.8 8.0 7.2 3.0 85.5 81.9 3.4 4.7 6.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 9.8 11.1 10.1 3.3 87.5 84.1 6.5 7.8 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 5 95 100 8.5 9.5 9.9 3.2 87.2 84.3 5.3 6.5 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 5 95 100 8.8 9.9 10.6 3.3 87.1 84.1 5.7 6.9 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 10.4 11.7 10.1 3.4 86.9 83.5 7.1 8.4 9.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 8.6 9.8 8.9 3.2 87.5 84.0 5.6 6.8 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 8.9 10.0 7.9 2.9 87.5 83.9 6.2 7.3 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 9.6 11.0 9.8 3.3 88.8 85.5 6.4 7.6 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 8.5 9.3 7.5 2.8 84.0 80.3 5.6 6.7 7.8 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 6.4 7.5 8.3 3.2 85.7 82.2 3.2 4.5 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 8.5 9.8 10.3 3.5 88.9 86.1 5.4 6.5 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------