***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2019.-24.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 3.4 3.7 3.8 34.7 31.9 25.3 3.9 7.2 12.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 2.5 2.6 3.5 36.4 33.1 26.7 2.6 5.9 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 3.1 3.0 3.3 30.5 28.6 23.0 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 13.3 11.2 10.8 72.6 52.6 47.3 5.4 10.3 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 3.6 3.6 3.9 29.9 31.4 27.1 3.9 7.9 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 15.2 8.5 5.9 42.8 40.8 36.9 6.3 11.4 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 2.7 3.4 3.9 41.4 36.1 28.4 2.9 6.1 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 7.8 7.9 4.9 33.3 32.7 28.4 8.2 15.5 26.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 3.1 2.9 3.4 28.1 29.0 24.5 3.6 7.6 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 3.0 2.6 3.4 24.5 26.8 23.0 3.7 8.0 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 4.6 4.7 4.1 30.7 31.9 27.4 5.0 9.8 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 5.4 6.2 5.7 41.0 38.8 33.4 4.5 9.7 17.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 15.2 8.2 6.5 43.6 40.9 35.4 5.9 11.4 19.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 4.6 4.5 3.3 25.6 26.4 21.7 6.0 11.8 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 13.1 16.2 13.3 91.8 61.4 55.3 4.6 10.3 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 13.3 6.7 5.7 39.8 38.9 33.7 5.3 9.9 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 3.4 4.1 3.8 40.8 35.3 28.8 3.7 7.1 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 3.5 3.3 3.3 23.5 26.0 22.2 4.8 10.0 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 3.4 3.7 3.4 34.0 31.6 25.4 3.9 7.6 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 4.1 3.3 4.5 25.0 26.9 24.0 4.9 11.0 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 3.1 3.1 3.6 30.3 29.4 24.5 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 4.0 4.8 3.9 40.1 34.8 27.7 4.5 8.2 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 2.9 3.2 3.4 31.9 30.5 24.3 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 3.1 2.7 3.1 24.8 26.4 22.0 4.0 8.7 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 3.1 3.7 4.7 35.9 33.6 27.7 3.6 6.9 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 14.9 12.2 9.8 67.2 52.1 47.0 5.6 11.4 19.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 3.1 3.5 4.1 35.5 32.8 26.4 3.5 6.7 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 11.9 10.2 9.9 70.7 52.5 47.4 4.8 9.4 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 5.9 5.6 3.6 23.8 26.0 22.5 8.1 15.6 26.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 2.8 3.2 3.4 34.6 32.2 25.4 3.3 6.6 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------