***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2019.-08.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 4.3 7.2 9.3 68.3 49.8 41.0 4.2 7.2 11.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.0 5.5 8.3 68.5 49.7 39.2 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 3.6 6.5 8.6 64.9 47.6 38.6 3.5 7.1 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 3.6 6.7 9.6 67.6 49.1 39.3 3.5 7.0 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.7 7.4 9.5 66.7 47.7 40.3 4.5 8.0 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.2 5.8 9.0 68.4 50.2 41.4 2.9 5.8 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 2.9 5.6 8.4 70.0 50.9 40.2 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.8 9.9 10.4 69.0 48.7 40.1 5.8 10.3 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.8 5.8 9.7 65.1 46.6 39.7 3.3 6.5 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.4 7.3 10.5 69.0 48.3 40.7 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.0 6.9 9.3 67.8 48.4 40.7 3.6 7.4 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.0 7.4 9.0 67.2 48.1 39.7 3.7 7.9 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.9 6.9 9.3 67.8 48.9 41.5 3.5 7.1 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 5.3 8.9 11.0 66.6 47.9 39.0 5.4 9.4 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 2.6 6.2 8.8 63.2 49.3 35.5 2.6 6.6 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.0 6.8 9.0 68.4 49.4 41.2 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.3 6.8 8.5 72.3 52.2 40.9 3.5 6.3 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.2 7.2 11.3 71.3 49.3 41.0 4.0 7.4 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 3.7 6.3 8.3 66.3 48.1 38.0 3.9 6.7 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 4.6 8.5 14.1 71.2 50.7 41.3 4.6 8.3 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.0 6.5 9.3 66.3 47.5 40.0 3.8 7.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 3.6 7.1 8.8 71.1 50.8 39.5 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 3.3 6.1 8.7 64.9 47.1 37.2 3.8 6.6 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.7 7.8 10.0 66.3 47.6 39.0 4.7 8.4 13.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.5 5.9 10.5 69.9 49.8 42.1 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.2 6.4 9.4 67.4 49.3 39.9 3.2 6.6 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.9 6.9 10.0 70.0 50.4 42.1 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.6 5.5 8.8 67.1 49.6 38.7 2.4 5.6 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.2 10.9 12.3 72.8 50.7 41.8 6.1 10.6 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 3.3 5.9 8.5 67.2 49.2 38.9 3.5 6.1 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------