***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2019.-15.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.1 9.2 13.5 104.3 64.6 50.9 3.1 5.8 9.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.6 10.1 11.5 99.1 62.9 47.6 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.8 11.3 13.1 106.8 65.5 50.5 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.4 12.6 13.9 99.3 62.4 48.1 5.4 9.2 13.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 4.4 9.8 13.9 100.7 62.7 48.3 4.5 7.2 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 2.9 6.8 12.2 93.0 60.1 46.9 3.0 5.2 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 4.1 11.6 11.5 100.2 63.4 47.6 4.1 7.7 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 8.8 17.3 14.6 103.0 63.7 48.5 9.0 13.2 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.7 9.5 14.9 106.7 65.1 50.5 3.6 6.2 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.4 12.4 15.3 107.1 65.1 50.2 5.5 8.7 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 4.1 9.7 13.0 97.7 61.6 47.1 4.2 7.0 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 4.7 10.0 12.6 95.9 61.1 46.6 4.9 7.7 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 4.4 9.2 13.2 94.9 60.6 46.9 4.6 7.2 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 6.5 17.7 15.7 105.8 64.6 49.9 6.5 11.7 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.9 10.5 12.7 93.4 61.2 45.9 2.9 6.6 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.3 8.4 12.7 95.2 60.7 46.7 3.2 6.0 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.9 9.8 10.6 92.2 60.0 45.9 4.0 7.1 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.1 12.5 16.6 112.8 67.1 51.0 5.2 8.3 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.1 12.2 11.6 99.4 62.7 47.8 4.2 8.1 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.6 14.0 20.2 112.3 67.0 50.0 5.4 9.0 13.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.2 10.5 14.1 105.9 64.9 50.7 4.2 7.1 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 4.4 10.3 10.6 87.7 57.7 44.9 4.6 8.2 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 4.1 12.0 12.3 101.1 63.2 48.3 4.2 8.0 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 5.6 16.1 15.3 111.1 66.7 50.9 5.8 10.0 15.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.4 8.1 14.6 102.8 63.8 50.6 3.3 5.6 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 4.5 10.1 12.7 93.6 60.5 47.0 4.6 7.6 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.8 10.0 13.9 103.0 64.0 50.9 3.7 6.7 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.3 9.3 13.0 97.8 62.2 47.1 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 8.4 20.0 17.9 115.1 67.8 50.9 8.4 13.2 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 3.9 11.6 12.0 102.0 64.0 48.9 3.8 7.4 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------