***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2019.-15.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 19.8 23.2 35.6 70.9 33.0 34.2 23.2 34.0 46.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 22.3 24.4 31.4 70.0 32.8 33.4 24.7 34.2 45.4 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 22.9 25.2 33.6 68.4 31.0 32.3 26.5 38.7 53.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 33.2 40.3 46.5 79.6 39.8 38.7 35.2 48.2 62.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 25.0 24.7 37.0 66.3 27.0 30.0 28.5 40.0 53.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 22.9 25.3 37.6 69.3 30.2 31.0 27.0 38.1 51.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 22.7 26.0 31.8 72.1 35.0 34.7 25.0 34.5 45.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 38.6 38.2 39.8 66.3 27.3 30.1 43.6 60.5 80.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 20.2 19.9 37.0 66.5 27.4 30.4 23.3 34.6 48.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 27.3 26.8 38.8 66.1 26.5 29.8 31.4 44.0 58.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 23.0 20.9 35.8 64.8 25.7 29.1 26.2 40.2 56.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 27.4 26.8 36.6 66.2 27.2 29.9 31.5 46.2 63.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 22.6 24.0 39.4 68.2 27.3 30.1 28.4 42.6 60.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 36.0 35.4 40.3 66.9 27.6 30.7 39.8 55.6 73.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 31.4 44.2 47.4 82.7 45.3 41.7 31.6 49.9 72.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 23.1 23.7 37.6 67.6 27.7 30.5 27.1 39.5 54.4 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 24.2 26.9 31.5 71.2 34.4 34.7 26.0 36.0 47.0 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 29.9 31.3 41.3 68.7 28.2 31.1 34.8 47.3 61.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 25.0 26.6 31.5 68.5 30.9 32.2 28.0 39.0 52.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 31.7 32.4 51.6 68.7 29.1 31.7 35.8 50.8 68.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 23.9 25.3 36.0 67.9 29.7 31.7 27.1 38.0 50.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 27.3 29.5 32.6 69.9 32.2 33.4 30.0 41.0 53.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 22.4 24.3 33.2 67.8 29.5 31.4 26.2 37.2 50.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 29.3 30.0 37.9 67.4 28.2 31.0 33.8 48.6 66.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 21.0 22.9 40.3 71.0 31.9 33.4 23.4 32.7 43.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 26.0 29.9 43.8 75.5 34.6 34.5 28.5 41.7 57.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 22.8 25.1 37.4 71.1 32.8 34.0 25.1 35.9 48.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 26.0 32.5 43.9 78.9 40.2 38.6 27.2 40.6 56.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 43.3 46.4 44.8 69.8 29.3 31.8 50.5 69.4 91.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 22.3 24.5 32.0 69.7 32.5 33.1 24.7 35.1 47.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------