***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2012.-09.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 -0.7 0.8 0.0 50.5 51.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 -2.2 -0.8 0.2 -0.2 48.1 50.3 -2.0 -0.6 0.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 50.8 51.6 -0.2 1.1 2.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -5.7 -3.7 -1.8 0.1 51.1 51.9 -5.4 -3.8 -2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 -2.9 -1.0 -1.2 0.3 52.8 53.1 -2.7 -1.2 0.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 -1.2 -1.1 -2.3 0.7 57.3 57.3 -3.2 -1.7 -0.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 -0.1 -0.7 0.2 -0.1 48.4 50.3 -1.9 -0.6 0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -4.5 -4.6 -1.7 0.6 55.7 55.9 -6.4 -5.0 -3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 -1.8 -0.2 -0.4 0.3 52.8 53.2 -1.6 -0.4 0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 -2.4 -0.6 -1.3 0.4 54.2 54.5 -2.2 -0.9 0.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 -0.4 -0.6 -1.1 0.5 55.3 55.0 -2.4 -1.0 0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 -1.0 -1.0 -1.2 0.6 56.3 56.1 -3.0 -1.5 -0.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 -0.6 -0.5 -1.5 0.7 57.1 56.8 -2.8 -1.2 0.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 -1.2 0.1 -0.8 0.0 49.5 51.8 -1.0 0.1 1.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 -0.4 -0.9 -1.4 0.0 50.5 51.6 -2.2 -0.9 0.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 0.2 0.1 -1.5 0.6 56.3 55.9 -1.8 -0.4 1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 -0.4 -1.1 0.1 -0.2 47.2 49.8 -2.2 -0.9 0.3 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 -4.0 -2.0 -1.8 0.4 53.7 54.3 -3.6 -2.3 -1.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 -1.9 -0.6 0.2 -0.1 48.6 50.6 -1.7 -0.5 0.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 -3.2 -4.7 -2.8 0.6 55.3 56.2 -7.1 -5.3 -3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 -2.2 -0.5 0.3 0.2 51.9 52.4 -2.0 -0.6 0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 -0.3 -1.0 0.1 -0.3 47.0 50.0 -2.1 -0.8 0.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 0.1 -0.5 0.1 -0.1 49.4 51.2 -1.7 -0.5 0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 -2.0 -0.5 -0.7 0.2 52.0 52.9 -1.8 -0.7 0.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 -2.1 -0.5 -0.9 0.0 50.1 51.1 -1.8 -0.5 0.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 -0.5 -0.5 -1.3 0.6 57.1 56.9 -2.3 -1.0 0.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 -2.3 -0.5 0.1 0.0 50.3 51.3 -2.0 -0.5 1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 -1.4 -1.8 -1.6 0.2 52.4 53.0 -3.3 -2.0 -0.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -4.8 -2.8 -2.2 0.4 54.0 54.9 -4.5 -3.1 -1.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 -2.0 -0.5 0.3 -0.1 48.8 50.5 -1.8 -0.4 0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------