***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2012.-16.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 -1.1 -0.6 -0.1 48.6 49.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 -0.8 -1.6 -1.0 -0.1 48.5 50.2 -3.1 -1.5 0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 -1.6 0.1 -0.8 -0.1 49.1 50.4 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 -7.4 -5.5 -3.0 -0.2 47.9 49.3 -7.0 -5.3 -3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 -3.9 -1.9 -2.6 -0.2 48.0 49.1 -3.3 -1.7 -0.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 -1.8 -2.4 -3.8 0.0 50.4 52.0 -3.9 -2.4 -0.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 -0.9 -1.8 -1.0 -0.2 48.1 49.9 -3.3 -1.6 0.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -8.2 -6.5 -3.2 0.0 49.8 51.4 -7.9 -6.4 -5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 -3.1 -1.3 -1.8 -0.2 47.4 48.8 -2.6 -1.0 0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 -3.4 -1.7 -2.7 -0.1 48.7 50.1 -3.1 -1.6 -0.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 -3.8 -1.7 -2.6 -0.1 49.1 50.0 -3.3 -1.6 -0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 -4.1 -2.4 -2.8 0.0 49.7 51.4 -3.9 -2.4 -1.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 -1.2 -2.0 -3.1 0.0 50.3 51.8 -3.7 -2.0 -0.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 -2.8 -0.9 -1.9 0.1 51.3 51.8 -2.4 -1.0 0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 -0.8 -1.6 -2.6 -0.3 47.0 49.0 -2.7 -1.4 -0.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 -2.9 -1.1 -3.0 0.0 50.1 51.1 -2.6 -1.1 0.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 -1.1 -1.8 -1.0 -0.1 49.1 50.3 -3.3 -1.7 -0.2 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 -5.1 -3.1 -3.1 0.1 50.7 51.7 -4.7 -3.2 -1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 -3.1 -1.4 -0.9 -0.1 49.4 50.7 -2.8 -1.3 0.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -7.9 -5.5 -4.1 0.3 52.8 53.2 -7.5 -5.7 -4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 -3.3 -1.5 -1.1 -0.2 48.1 49.2 -2.9 -1.3 0.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 -0.9 -1.6 -0.9 0.0 50.0 50.8 -3.1 -1.6 -0.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 -3.4 -1.4 -0.9 0.1 50.6 51.4 -3.1 -1.5 0.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 -3.4 -1.6 -2.0 0.1 50.7 51.6 -3.1 -1.6 -0.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 -3.5 -1.6 -2.1 -0.2 48.3 49.5 -3.0 -1.4 0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 -1.2 -1.8 -2.9 0.0 50.2 52.7 -3.3 -1.8 -0.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 -3.5 -1.3 -1.3 -0.1 48.5 49.7 -3.0 -1.2 0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 -4.3 -2.7 -2.8 -0.2 48.1 49.5 -4.1 -2.5 -1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -6.3 -4.2 -3.5 0.3 52.8 53.0 -5.9 -4.4 -3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 -3.2 -1.4 -0.9 -0.1 48.3 50.0 -2.9 -1.3 0.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------