***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2012.-16.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 9999.0 7.8 7.4 1.3 68.6 65.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 7.4 7.3 7.0 1.1 66.4 63.5 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 8.8 8.8 7.6 1.3 68.6 65.3 6.3 7.5 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 2.5 2.7 4.9 0.6 59.2 57.3 0.8 2.0 3.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 7.8 8.4 6.1 1.0 64.7 61.9 6.2 7.4 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 8.0 8.1 5.6 1.3 68.5 65.5 5.7 6.8 7.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 7.2 7.1 6.8 1.0 65.0 62.4 4.9 6.1 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 2.6 2.7 5.9 1.3 69.3 66.3 0.2 1.3 2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 8.5 9.3 7.0 1.2 66.6 63.5 6.8 8.1 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 8.6 8.6 6.4 1.3 68.3 65.3 6.0 7.3 8.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 7.9 8.8 6.3 1.2 67.0 64.1 6.2 7.5 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 8.9 9.0 6.3 1.4 69.7 66.5 6.3 7.6 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 9.0 9.2 6.3 1.7 72.7 69.4 6.2 7.5 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 9.3 9.2 7.2 1.2 67.5 64.3 6.6 7.9 9.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 6.4 6.6 5.3 0.6 58.9 56.9 5.0 6.1 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 9.3 9.4 6.1 1.3 68.4 65.2 6.8 8.0 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 6.0 6.5 6.5 0.9 63.7 61.0 4.6 5.7 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 6.8 6.8 6.4 1.5 70.5 67.3 4.5 5.5 6.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 7.9 7.8 7.3 1.2 67.8 64.6 5.5 6.6 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 6.2 6.4 4.9 1.6 73.1 69.7 3.2 4.6 5.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 8.8 8.8 7.3 1.2 66.8 63.7 6.3 7.6 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 6.7 7.3 6.8 1.0 64.9 61.8 5.2 6.3 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 7.9 7.9 7.6 1.3 69.0 65.5 5.5 6.6 7.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 9.7 9.6 7.3 1.4 69.1 65.8 6.9 8.2 9.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 7.7 7.7 6.0 1.1 66.2 63.3 5.5 6.6 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 8.3 8.7 6.1 1.7 74.7 71.3 6.0 7.1 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 8.7 8.7 6.8 1.2 68.2 65.0 6.3 7.4 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.0 7.2 5.3 0.6 58.8 57.0 5.4 6.6 7.7 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 5.8 6.0 5.9 1.7 72.9 69.4 3.1 4.3 5.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 7.6 7.5 7.2 1.2 67.5 64.4 5.2 6.3 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------