***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2012.-25.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 9999.0 11.1 10.7 3.0 74.5 73.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 11.1 11.5 10.3 2.8 74.3 73.3 6.3 8.4 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 12.7 12.9 10.9 3.0 74.4 73.6 7.3 9.5 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 97 3 100 3.7 4.4 6.3 0.7 56.0 55.7 1.2 3.6 5.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 9.8 11.3 8.5 1.9 65.3 64.8 7.2 9.4 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 9.0 10.5 7.7 2.1 65.9 65.3 6.5 8.6 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 10.7 10.9 9.9 2.5 72.1 71.1 6.3 8.2 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 4.6 4.8 8.7 2.8 71.0 70.3 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 12.6 12.8 9.9 2.4 68.8 68.2 7.8 10.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 11.7 11.9 9.4 2.7 70.3 69.6 7.0 9.3 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 49 51 100 11.7 11.9 8.8 2.2 67.0 66.3 7.3 9.6 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 12.1 12.3 8.8 2.6 70.5 69.8 7.2 9.5 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 12.9 13.0 9.6 3.3 74.6 73.9 7.5 9.7 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 13.2 13.4 10.6 3.0 72.3 71.4 7.5 10.0 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 96 4 100 7.9 8.6 7.5 0.8 57.1 56.8 5.6 7.7 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 45 55 100 12.2 12.5 8.7 2.4 68.4 67.7 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 10.1 10.4 9.6 2.5 72.1 71.0 5.8 7.8 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 10.3 10.5 9.7 3.4 74.0 73.3 5.8 7.7 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 11.8 12.2 10.7 3.1 75.8 74.9 6.4 8.6 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 9.5 10.0 8.5 3.8 77.2 76.5 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 12.1 12.3 10.3 2.5 69.7 69.1 7.5 9.7 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 11.2 11.6 10.1 2.7 74.1 73.0 6.2 8.4 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 11.8 12.1 11.1 3.3 76.7 75.8 6.4 8.6 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 13.4 13.6 10.6 3.2 73.5 72.7 7.8 10.2 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 10.9 11.1 9.1 2.4 69.8 69.2 6.8 8.7 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 12.2 12.3 9.1 3.5 77.7 77.2 7.0 9.0 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 12.7 12.7 10.2 2.9 74.0 73.3 7.6 9.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 97 3 100 8.6 9.1 6.8 0.6 54.8 54.5 6.1 8.4 10.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 13 87 100 9.5 10.0 9.6 4.0 77.7 76.9 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 11.2 11.5 10.6 3.0 74.9 73.9 6.4 8.4 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------