***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2012.-16.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 4.1 4.4 0.1 51.3 51.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 4.6 4.0 4.1 0.1 51.1 51.3 2.3 3.9 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 6.2 5.6 4.7 0.2 52.3 51.6 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -1.9 0.3 2.7 0.0 50.0 49.4 -1.6 0.3 2.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.9 5.3 3.4 0.1 51.3 50.4 3.3 5.2 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 5.5 5.1 3.0 0.3 53.6 52.7 2.9 4.7 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 4.5 3.8 3.9 0.0 50.1 50.7 2.1 3.8 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -2.4 -0.1 3.3 0.4 54.1 53.0 -2.0 -0.4 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.4 5.9 4.2 0.2 51.9 50.9 3.8 5.7 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 2.9 5.4 3.8 0.3 53.5 52.3 3.3 5.0 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.2 5.7 3.6 0.3 52.7 51.4 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.0 5.8 3.6 0.4 53.8 52.7 3.4 5.4 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.9 5.6 3.3 0.4 54.2 53.2 3.3 5.2 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 3.2 6.0 4.5 0.5 54.6 53.0 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.6 4.3 2.9 -0.1 49.2 48.8 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.5 6.1 3.3 0.3 52.9 51.6 3.8 5.7 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.6 3.8 0.1 50.6 50.8 2.0 3.5 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 1.6 3.6 3.7 0.5 54.9 53.5 1.8 3.2 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.7 4.4 0.2 52.2 51.9 2.7 4.5 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 0.4 3.1 2.2 0.5 55.7 54.6 0.7 2.5 4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.4 5.6 4.4 0.2 51.6 50.9 3.7 5.5 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.2 4.3 4.1 0.2 52.0 51.6 2.5 4.1 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 2.5 4.8 4.7 0.4 53.6 52.6 2.7 4.4 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.3 6.1 4.5 0.4 54.2 52.8 3.7 5.6 7.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 2.6 4.6 3.1 0.1 50.8 50.4 2.9 4.6 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.7 5.1 3.2 0.4 54.1 53.9 3.1 4.7 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.1 5.3 3.7 0.1 51.0 50.8 3.5 5.2 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.7 4.9 3.0 0.0 50.1 49.4 3.1 4.9 6.6 28 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 -0.1 2.4 3.1 0.6 55.8 54.3 0.3 1.9 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.2 4.2 0.1 51.3 51.4 2.4 4.1 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------