***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2012.-16.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 24.2 41.0 76.9 38.7 38.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 39.5 32.0 41.5 84.3 46.1 43.8 24.7 34.3 45.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 47.4 32.7 41.3 78.3 39.9 39.3 28.0 40.4 54.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 55.4 43.1 47.5 81.3 42.3 41.1 36.5 48.6 62.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 31.3 34.3 43.8 76.6 37.9 37.8 31.4 41.8 53.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 28.4 34.7 47.6 86.1 43.9 43.0 28.6 38.4 49.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 39.9 31.9 41.4 83.8 45.6 43.3 25.0 34.7 46.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 69.6 56.9 49.1 81.8 42.6 41.7 48.9 63.1 78.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 42.2 27.4 43.3 75.0 35.7 36.2 25.9 36.5 48.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 51.8 38.2 46.8 77.7 38.2 38.2 35.0 46.3 58.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 32.5 35.7 41.5 76.5 37.5 37.5 32.7 44.2 57.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 56.8 43.4 43.8 81.5 42.0 41.0 36.6 49.9 64.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 52.6 40.7 46.1 83.1 41.5 41.1 35.1 46.4 58.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 65.3 48.1 48.5 80.5 40.8 40.0 40.9 56.7 75.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 57.6 50.9 52.0 90.2 51.3 48.0 31.8 49.5 71.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 29.7 33.8 43.0 79.5 39.1 38.7 29.9 41.2 53.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 40.7 34.2 40.9 86.1 47.5 44.3 25.9 35.6 47.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 53.1 41.1 51.4 78.4 39.1 38.9 37.6 48.1 59.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 45.2 35.8 41.6 83.5 45.0 43.0 27.8 39.2 52.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 58.1 50.1 67.3 85.8 46.7 45.3 39.4 52.7 67.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 28.7 30.2 41.5 74.5 35.5 35.9 28.7 39.2 51.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 45.0 39.0 42.3 86.4 47.5 44.8 29.5 40.6 53.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 44.0 33.4 42.4 81.4 42.1 41.1 27.7 38.4 50.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 57.7 39.4 45.8 76.7 37.4 37.4 35.9 49.9 65.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 39.7 28.3 45.4 76.9 38.0 38.1 25.7 34.7 44.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 49.0 41.5 48.3 86.8 47.0 45.2 32.6 43.6 56.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 26.9 30.2 43.9 77.3 38.8 38.5 26.7 37.4 49.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 48.6 38.4 47.9 84.7 45.3 43.1 29.7 42.0 56.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 79.9 62.8 57.1 80.7 41.7 41.1 53.7 71.9 91.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 41.5 32.0 41.6 82.8 44.7 42.9 25.2 35.6 47.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------