***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2012.-25.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 81 19 0 100 9999.0 1.6 3.3 28.8 23.8 18.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 2.1 2.3 3.5 35.6 29.4 22.7 2.9 6.1 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 2.1 1.8 3.3 29.2 22.8 19.0 3.1 6.7 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 4.0 4.5 6.0 45.6 33.6 30.2 4.3 8.8 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 2.2 1.8 3.8 28.4 23.1 20.1 3.3 6.9 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 4.0 4.0 4.2 32.7 28.4 23.4 5.1 9.7 16.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 2.5 2.6 3.5 35.7 29.8 22.9 3.0 6.2 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 78 22 0 100 5.1 4.2 3.8 27.1 22.6 20.1 7.1 13.9 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 83 17 0 100 2.0 1.5 3.5 26.2 20.3 17.7 3.2 6.7 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 2.3 1.6 3.6 25.9 20.7 18.5 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 2.6 1.7 3.3 25.2 22.4 19.0 3.5 7.6 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 3.1 2.5 3.6 27.9 24.4 21.0 4.2 9.2 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 2.9 2.6 4.0 29.9 24.7 20.9 4.3 9.2 16.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 4.3 4.1 4.6 35.8 26.0 22.6 5.8 11.3 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 13.2 8.0 8.2 65.9 48.2 41.7 3.7 8.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 2.5 2.1 3.9 30.1 25.2 21.7 3.5 7.6 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 2.5 3.2 3.7 39.1 33.2 25.2 3.1 6.5 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 83 17 0 100 2.7 2.4 4.2 29.2 22.5 20.3 4.4 8.6 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 2.8 3.1 3.5 34.9 28.5 22.3 3.8 7.5 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 3.5 2.9 5.5 32.6 24.9 22.3 4.6 9.9 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 79 21 0 100 2.2 1.7 3.3 26.4 21.0 17.8 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 3.6 4.8 4.0 40.3 32.6 25.5 4.8 8.5 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 82 18 0 100 2.1 2.3 3.8 34.6 25.9 21.3 3.4 6.7 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 82 18 0 100 2.6 2.2 4.0 30.5 23.0 20.3 4.1 8.6 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 2.4 1.9 3.8 28.8 23.7 19.8 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 3.6 3.8 4.5 34.5 28.9 24.3 4.6 9.9 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 80 20 0 100 2.0 1.5 3.4 27.6 22.5 18.2 3.0 6.3 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 4.5 5.8 6.8 53.4 39.6 35.4 4.3 8.6 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 81 19 0 100 4.2 3.7 4.8 31.5 23.7 21.3 6.4 13.4 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 2.2 2.1 3.4 33.2 27.0 21.2 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------