***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2012.-02.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 7.1 15.5 117.0 68.8 58.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 7.6 11.6 15.8 123.9 71.0 59.5 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.1 15.0 15.9 124.0 70.8 60.2 3.8 7.5 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.4 18.6 17.1 125.9 71.5 58.8 6.4 10.6 16.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 9.7 14.4 16.0 122.2 70.3 58.9 3.6 7.3 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.5 13.0 17.7 128.5 72.2 60.0 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.5 10.6 15.4 119.1 69.7 58.2 2.9 5.7 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.9 19.8 18.1 130.7 72.8 60.9 7.2 11.4 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.9 12.6 15.9 117.9 68.8 58.2 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.5 16.4 17.1 122.5 70.3 59.5 4.8 8.9 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.0 16.3 15.2 124.6 71.0 58.3 4.1 8.1 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.2 19.4 16.1 131.0 72.9 59.5 4.7 9.1 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 14.3 15.1 16.8 127.9 72.1 59.2 4.8 8.2 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 16.8 18.5 18.6 129.7 72.5 61.9 4.5 8.9 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 14.6 28.6 19.9 149.2 77.4 63.2 5.1 10.7 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.9 14.9 15.7 126.9 71.7 58.7 3.8 7.3 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 7.6 11.2 15.0 120.9 70.3 58.9 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 11.7 16.3 18.6 120.5 69.6 59.5 5.2 9.2 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 8.3 13.7 16.0 128.3 72.2 60.7 2.8 6.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 13.5 20.9 24.9 129.4 72.4 61.6 5.6 10.5 17.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.9 13.9 15.7 120.1 69.6 59.5 4.0 7.6 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 8.5 13.1 15.5 121.1 70.1 59.9 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 11.9 13.5 16.5 132.1 73.3 61.8 2.8 5.9 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.4 15.9 16.9 120.8 69.7 59.7 5.0 9.0 14.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.3 12.1 17.2 119.9 69.7 58.9 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 7.6 12.2 18.0 134.3 73.9 59.8 3.2 5.9 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 9.2 12.6 16.5 116.8 68.7 57.8 3.5 6.7 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 12.2 19.2 17.6 135.0 73.9 60.1 5.2 9.4 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 16.5 23.4 20.9 122.2 70.1 60.0 7.4 13.2 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.1 12.1 15.9 124.0 71.0 59.5 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------