***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2012.-09.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 6.3 11.5 74.5 51.3 45.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.6 7.1 12.0 80.8 55.2 48.1 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 8.7 6.9 11.6 74.6 51.5 45.8 3.3 6.6 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.0 8.3 13.0 77.5 52.2 45.6 4.1 7.7 12.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 9.5 8.0 12.8 77.9 52.3 45.9 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.6 7.7 14.2 91.7 58.9 50.5 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.4 12.1 81.8 56.1 48.9 3.3 6.1 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.7 10.3 14.7 81.5 54.9 48.5 4.7 8.9 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.8 6.1 12.8 75.7 51.1 45.3 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.5 7.9 14.0 78.3 52.8 47.2 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.1 7.5 12.4 78.4 53.5 46.7 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.3 8.8 13.0 81.9 55.0 48.0 3.3 7.2 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.2 9.6 13.6 87.5 57.0 49.9 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 11.1 8.8 13.3 70.5 49.8 45.8 4.6 8.9 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.3 7.5 12.9 75.7 52.6 45.5 2.7 6.7 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.8 7.9 12.6 82.5 55.1 47.9 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.2 12.0 83.6 56.8 48.9 4.2 7.5 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 8.4 7.0 15.4 76.5 52.0 47.2 3.6 6.6 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 8.7 7.7 11.8 77.8 53.7 47.1 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 9.5 9.4 20.3 83.3 56.2 50.3 4.5 7.9 12.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.7 6.7 11.8 72.5 49.2 43.9 3.9 6.9 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.4 12.3 83.6 56.6 49.0 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 8.2 6.6 11.5 71.7 50.9 45.6 3.4 6.4 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 10.3 8.3 13.2 72.1 49.9 45.5 4.7 8.3 13.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.2 5.7 12.6 73.9 50.5 45.2 3.2 5.7 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.4 14.4 89.0 57.2 49.5 3.8 7.3 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.9 7.4 12.4 75.8 51.7 46.1 3.9 6.9 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.8 6.1 12.8 78.3 53.1 45.8 2.4 5.4 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 12.2 11.0 17.1 78.3 53.3 48.3 5.8 10.0 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.8 7.2 11.9 80.0 54.7 47.9 3.6 6.2 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------