***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2012.-16.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 8.9 10.6 81.2 53.8 45.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.7 8.4 10.3 86.4 56.9 47.6 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.6 8.6 10.5 80.3 52.3 44.7 4.1 7.8 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 12.0 10.2 11.3 76.9 52.4 43.5 6.1 9.6 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.7 9.7 11.1 78.1 52.9 44.4 6.2 9.1 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.2 7.2 11.6 87.1 58.3 48.6 3.6 5.8 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 9.3 9.2 10.5 87.2 57.0 47.7 4.2 7.4 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 17.3 17.4 12.6 88.4 58.3 48.6 10.4 14.8 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 9.7 7.9 11.2 78.6 51.9 44.0 4.5 7.6 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.2 12.2 12.1 84.0 54.9 46.7 6.9 10.8 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.1 9.0 10.6 80.0 53.8 44.7 5.0 8.2 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 11.4 11.1 11.2 87.1 57.6 47.3 6.3 9.5 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.6 11.7 87.0 57.2 47.5 5.3 8.1 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.8 15.5 12.0 84.4 55.0 47.7 7.9 13.6 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.8 7.7 11.0 74.2 52.8 42.7 3.2 6.9 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.8 8.7 10.7 80.3 53.9 44.6 4.8 7.8 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.7 10.2 90.4 59.2 48.8 4.0 6.7 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 12.7 12.2 13.2 85.3 55.4 48.4 6.5 10.6 15.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 10.6 9.9 10.3 85.3 56.1 47.2 4.3 8.0 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 13.2 14.3 16.6 92.2 60.5 52.2 6.0 10.6 16.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.6 7.8 10.7 77.0 50.7 43.5 4.3 7.7 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.9 10.4 91.6 59.3 48.9 4.5 7.7 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.2 10.2 10.5 83.9 55.0 46.6 5.0 8.7 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 14.5 12.6 11.7 81.5 52.8 46.0 7.2 11.8 17.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 8.4 7.1 11.9 81.3 53.1 45.4 3.9 6.5 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.7 11.5 86.9 58.5 48.6 4.8 7.8 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 9.4 8.1 11.6 82.8 54.1 46.2 4.0 7.2 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 4.2 7.5 10.8 74.8 52.3 42.7 3.9 7.0 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 19.8 19.4 14.3 86.3 56.9 49.9 10.0 16.4 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 9.3 8.4 10.3 84.4 55.4 46.6 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------