***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2018.-25.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 2.0 1.5 2.4 -0.2 47.7 48.0 0.1 1.7 3.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 1.5 0.6 1.8 -0.4 45.4 45.9 -0.7 1.1 2.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 3.3 2.5 2.3 -0.4 46.3 46.7 1.2 2.9 4.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 -1.6 -4.0 -1.3 -1.4 35.9 37.7 -4.3 -2.3 -0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 1.0 0.3 0.6 -0.5 45.1 46.0 -0.8 0.7 2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 0.3 0.6 -0.9 0.6 57.1 57.5 -1.6 -0.1 1.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 1.6 0.8 1.9 -0.4 46.3 46.7 -0.5 1.2 2.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 -3.9 -3.3 -0.2 1.0 59.8 59.9 -6.1 -4.3 -2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.0 50.3 50.8 -0.2 1.4 2.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.6 55.7 55.9 -1.0 0.5 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.0 49.6 50.6 -1.2 0.3 1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.7 56.5 56.9 -1.9 -0.5 0.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.8 58.9 58.9 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.3 53.5 53.5 -0.2 1.2 2.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 1.5 0.2 0.6 -0.9 39.9 41.6 -0.4 1.1 2.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 1.4 1.0 -0.1 -0.1 49.3 50.3 -0.4 1.0 2.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 1.4 0.2 1.2 -0.7 41.9 42.9 -0.7 0.9 2.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 90 10 100 -1.1 -1.0 -0.4 0.5 54.9 55.1 -2.6 -1.3 -0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 1.4 0.8 1.9 -0.3 47.1 47.5 -0.6 1.0 2.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 46 54 100 -2.4 -2.9 -0.7 1.2 61.5 61.5 -6.1 -4.2 -2.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 1.5 0.8 1.7 -0.3 46.5 47.1 -0.6 1.1 2.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 0.8 0.0 1.7 -0.5 44.7 45.4 -1.1 0.5 2.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 90 10 100 1.0 0.8 2.0 0.0 50.5 50.7 -0.8 0.8 2.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.2 52.3 52.4 -1.1 0.2 1.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 1.7 1.1 1.8 -0.3 47.0 47.5 -0.2 1.3 2.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 46 54 100 1.8 1.7 1.1 1.5 65.2 64.4 -1.0 0.4 1.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 1.8 1.3 2.2 -0.1 48.7 49.0 -0.5 1.5 3.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 0.1 -1.5 -0.9 -1.3 36.2 38.2 -1.8 -0.4 1.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 -1.1 -0.4 -0.6 1.1 60.3 60.2 -3.5 -1.6 0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 1.9 1.2 2.2 -0.3 46.9 47.3 -0.3 1.5 3.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------