***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2018.-09.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 -1.6 -0.5 0.1 -0.6 43.6 48.4 -1.4 -0.1 1.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 -2.2 -1.3 -0.4 -0.8 41.2 47.5 -2.0 -0.6 0.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 -0.5 0.6 0.0 -0.6 43.3 48.6 -0.2 1.1 2.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -5.9 -5.0 -3.3 -1.2 37.4 42.6 -5.4 -3.8 -2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 -2.9 -1.9 -2.3 -0.7 42.3 46.8 -2.7 -1.2 0.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 -3.4 -2.1 -3.6 -0.4 45.4 48.6 -3.2 -1.7 -0.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 -2.1 -1.3 -0.2 -0.8 41.5 47.1 -1.9 -0.6 0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -6.6 -5.2 -3.1 -0.1 48.6 51.2 -6.4 -5.0 -3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 -1.9 -0.7 -1.6 -0.5 44.7 48.8 -1.6 -0.4 0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 -2.4 -1.1 -2.6 -0.2 47.5 50.5 -2.2 -0.9 0.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 -2.7 -1.5 -2.7 -0.6 43.6 48.0 -2.4 -1.0 0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 -0.9 -1.9 -2.9 -0.4 46.2 49.7 -3.0 -1.5 -0.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 -3.1 -1.6 -3.1 -0.5 45.2 48.4 -2.8 -1.2 0.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 -1.2 -0.1 -1.7 -0.3 46.4 49.9 -1.0 0.1 1.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 -2.6 -2.2 -2.5 -1.4 33.9 39.8 -2.2 -0.9 0.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 -2.1 -1.0 -3.2 -0.7 42.8 47.0 -1.8 -0.4 1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 -2.4 -1.6 -0.4 -0.9 40.1 46.3 -2.2 -0.9 0.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 -1.7 -2.3 -3.1 0.0 49.7 51.7 -3.6 -2.3 -1.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 -2.0 -1.1 -0.4 -0.7 41.8 48.0 -1.7 -0.5 0.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 -4.5 -5.0 -3.7 0.3 52.6 53.3 -7.1 -5.3 -3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 -2.2 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 43.4 47.9 -2.0 -0.6 0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 -2.3 -1.5 -0.6 -0.9 40.4 46.6 -2.1 -0.8 0.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 -2.0 -0.9 -0.4 -0.6 43.4 48.7 -1.7 -0.5 0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 -0.1 -0.8 -1.9 -0.3 47.0 50.3 -1.8 -0.7 0.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 0.0 -1.1 -1.3 -0.7 42.1 46.6 -1.8 -0.5 0.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 -0.4 -1.4 -3.2 -0.5 44.8 48.8 -2.3 -1.0 0.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 -2.3 -1.0 -0.3 -0.6 44.0 48.3 -2.0 -0.5 1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 -3.7 -3.0 -3.2 -1.2 36.6 41.9 -3.3 -2.0 -0.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 -2.5 -3.0 -3.2 0.1 50.8 52.2 -4.5 -3.1 -1.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 -2.0 -1.0 -0.2 -0.7 42.2 48.1 -1.8 -0.4 0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------