***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2018.-25.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 6.3 6.6 7.1 -2.0 32.5 34.4 6.7 8.8 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.3 6.4 7.2 -1.8 33.5 35.6 6.3 8.4 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 6.7 7.2 7.4 -2.0 32.4 34.5 7.3 9.5 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 -0.7 -0.8 2.2 -3.7 21.2 23.7 1.2 3.6 5.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 6.6 6.9 5.4 -2.3 30.7 32.7 7.2 9.4 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.3 7.3 5.2 -1.3 39.5 40.8 6.5 8.6 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.0 6.5 7.3 -1.5 35.4 37.3 6.3 8.2 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 3.0 1.3 5.6 -1.3 39.9 41.2 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 7.4 7.7 6.5 -2.1 32.3 34.3 7.8 10.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.1 7.4 6.0 -1.8 36.0 37.7 7.0 9.3 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.6 7.4 6.3 -2.0 33.8 35.8 7.3 9.6 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 10.2 8.2 6.1 -1.2 40.5 42.0 7.2 9.5 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 10.3 8.9 7.4 -0.8 43.5 44.6 7.5 9.7 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 11.1 7.2 6.7 -2.5 30.8 33.2 7.5 10.0 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 3.9 3.8 4.0 -3.5 20.3 23.1 5.6 7.7 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.0 8.2 5.8 -1.9 35.0 37.0 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.6 5.7 6.7 -1.9 31.7 34.0 5.8 7.8 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 8.4 6.3 5.8 -1.7 37.0 38.8 5.8 7.7 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.6 6.5 7.3 -1.9 33.2 35.3 6.4 8.6 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 6.7 5.7 5.5 -0.6 45.3 46.1 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 7.0 7.1 7.0 -2.3 30.5 32.6 7.5 9.7 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.8 5.8 6.7 -2.1 30.4 32.8 6.2 8.4 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.4 6.5 7.3 -1.9 33.6 35.9 6.4 8.6 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.1 7.9 7.0 -2.0 33.8 36.0 7.8 10.2 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 6.3 6.4 5.8 -2.3 30.2 32.1 6.8 8.7 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 9.4 8.8 6.5 -0.1 48.8 49.2 7.0 9.0 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.5 7.7 6.9 -1.8 34.1 35.9 7.6 9.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 80 20 0 100 4.2 4.1 3.0 -3.7 20.7 23.5 6.1 8.4 10.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 6.7 5.0 6.0 -1.1 41.5 42.8 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.3 6.6 7.3 -1.7 34.1 36.1 6.4 8.4 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------