***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2018.-02.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 5.1 5.3 5.1 -2.2 27.5 33.6 5.9 7.7 9.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 4.8 5.0 5.0 -2.3 26.9 33.0 5.6 7.3 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 5.9 6.2 5.5 -2.3 28.2 34.4 6.8 8.5 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 -0.8 -1.1 1.3 -3.2 20.2 27.9 0.5 2.2 3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 5.4 6.1 3.9 -2.1 28.8 34.8 6.6 8.4 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 5.7 6.7 4.2 -1.1 38.9 42.8 6.1 7.8 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 4.8 5.0 5.1 -2.1 28.1 33.7 5.5 7.2 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 -0.3 0.9 4.4 -1.1 38.3 42.9 0.4 1.9 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 6.3 6.9 4.9 -2.0 30.2 36.1 7.2 9.0 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 5.7 6.6 4.6 -1.6 34.5 39.8 6.5 8.2 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 5.6 6.6 4.7 -1.7 33.3 38.7 6.6 8.5 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 6.2 7.4 4.8 -1.0 39.6 43.9 6.8 8.5 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 9.4 7.9 5.6 -0.6 43.7 47.2 6.6 8.6 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 6.2 6.5 5.1 -2.3 29.0 36.0 7.0 8.7 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 4.3 3.8 2.5 -3.2 18.3 27.0 5.2 6.6 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 6.5 7.6 4.5 -1.4 35.7 40.8 7.3 9.1 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 3.9 4.1 4.7 -2.4 25.1 31.1 4.9 6.5 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 4.2 4.9 4.6 -1.5 35.6 41.2 4.7 6.2 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 5.1 5.3 5.2 -2.3 27.1 33.5 6.0 7.6 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 2.8 4.2 4.0 -0.8 41.8 46.1 3.2 5.1 6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 5.9 6.1 5.2 -2.3 27.4 33.7 6.8 8.6 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 4.7 4.6 4.8 -2.5 24.6 31.1 5.6 7.2 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 5.3 5.6 5.5 -2.2 28.3 35.0 6.1 7.7 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 6.9 7.4 5.3 -2.0 31.5 37.8 7.5 9.2 10.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 4.8 4.9 3.7 -2.5 25.0 31.1 5.8 7.4 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.9 8.2 5.2 -0.1 48.6 50.6 6.8 8.3 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 5.9 6.2 4.8 -2.1 28.1 33.9 6.8 8.5 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 4.3 4.1 2.1 -3.1 21.1 29.1 5.4 6.9 8.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 2.9 4.2 4.5 -1.2 38.7 44.1 3.6 5.3 6.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 4.9 5.3 5.2 -2.2 27.8 33.9 5.8 7.4 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------