***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2018.-09.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 3.7 5.5 5.4 -0.7 42.9 47.6 4.4 6.3 8.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 3.0 4.5 5.1 -0.8 41.6 47.2 3.6 5.3 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 3.9 6.0 5.9 -0.6 44.3 48.4 4.8 6.7 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 -0.8 0.7 2.4 -1.1 38.9 43.5 0.0 2.0 3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 4.0 6.1 4.0 -0.5 44.4 47.4 4.8 6.7 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.1 6.1 4.2 -0.2 48.4 50.0 4.5 6.3 7.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.0 4.3 5.1 -0.8 41.3 46.8 3.5 5.1 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -0.9 1.5 4.4 0.1 50.5 51.2 -0.4 1.4 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 4.6 7.1 5.1 -0.3 46.8 48.9 5.5 7.4 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.2 6.5 4.9 0.0 49.5 50.5 4.7 6.5 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 4.0 6.3 4.4 -0.3 46.7 48.9 4.8 6.6 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 4.4 6.9 4.5 -0.1 49.2 50.6 5.0 6.9 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.4 6.5 4.2 -0.1 49.4 51.2 4.8 6.6 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.7 7.0 5.6 -0.3 47.4 49.9 5.2 7.3 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 3.3 4.3 3.0 -1.3 36.6 41.8 4.0 5.5 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 4.6 6.8 4.1 -0.3 46.9 49.2 5.3 7.2 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.7 4.0 5.0 -0.9 40.8 46.1 3.3 4.8 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 2.9 5.0 5.2 0.2 51.5 52.0 3.4 4.9 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.2 4.9 5.4 -0.7 42.6 47.7 3.8 5.7 7.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 5.1 4.6 3.8 0.4 53.7 53.7 2.2 4.2 6.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 3.9 6.1 5.4 -0.5 45.0 48.1 4.8 6.6 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.3 4.7 5.1 -0.8 41.5 46.7 3.8 5.5 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.7 5.3 5.9 -0.6 44.4 48.6 4.2 5.9 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 4.8 7.4 5.7 -0.1 48.6 50.4 5.5 7.5 9.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 3.5 4.9 3.9 -0.8 42.1 46.4 4.1 5.7 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 4.5 6.2 4.0 -0.1 48.6 50.5 4.9 6.3 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.0 5.7 4.9 -0.6 43.3 47.6 4.6 6.4 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 3.8 5.2 2.9 -1.0 39.5 43.8 4.5 6.2 7.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 1.8 4.4 4.8 0.3 52.5 52.8 2.2 4.1 5.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.1 4.6 5.2 -0.8 42.0 47.5 3.7 5.4 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------