***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2018.-16.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 5.2 5.6 5.4 -1.2 32.3 39.1 5.7 6.9 8.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 4.6 5.0 5.4 -1.2 32.0 38.9 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 5.9 6.4 5.8 -1.2 33.3 39.8 6.3 7.5 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 0.0 0.0 1.9 -2.0 24.0 30.3 0.8 2.0 3.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 5.7 6.2 4.0 -1.2 33.0 38.2 6.2 7.4 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.3 4.1 -0.6 42.1 45.5 5.7 6.8 7.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 4.5 4.9 5.4 -1.1 32.8 39.6 4.9 6.1 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -0.1 0.9 4.4 -0.5 43.2 46.1 0.2 1.3 2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 6.4 7.0 5.0 -1.0 35.3 40.3 6.8 8.1 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.8 6.5 4.7 -0.8 39.5 43.3 6.0 7.3 8.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 5.9 6.5 4.6 -0.9 36.9 41.4 6.2 7.5 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 6.1 7.1 4.6 -0.4 43.5 46.4 6.3 7.6 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.2 5.0 -0.3 46.0 48.7 6.2 7.5 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 6.1 6.7 5.4 -1.2 34.2 39.8 6.6 7.9 9.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 4.3 4.2 2.9 -2.0 22.8 29.9 5.0 6.1 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 6.5 7.2 4.3 -0.8 38.3 42.5 6.8 8.0 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 4.2 4.4 5.1 -1.3 29.7 37.1 4.6 5.7 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.3 5.0 4.8 -0.7 41.0 44.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 5.0 5.4 5.5 -1.2 32.6 39.5 5.5 6.6 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.4 3.9 -0.1 48.5 50.0 3.2 4.6 5.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 5.9 6.3 5.4 -1.2 32.4 38.3 6.3 7.6 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 4.7 4.9 5.2 -1.3 29.5 37.1 5.2 6.3 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 5.1 5.6 5.9 -1.1 34.3 40.8 5.5 6.6 7.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 6.5 7.2 5.6 -0.9 37.0 41.9 6.9 8.2 9.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 5.0 5.3 4.0 -1.4 30.1 36.3 5.5 6.6 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.1 4.6 0.0 50.7 52.3 6.0 7.1 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 5.8 6.3 5.1 -1.1 33.2 39.5 6.3 7.4 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 4.7 4.8 2.5 -1.9 24.4 30.9 5.4 6.6 7.7 28 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 2.9 3.9 4.6 -0.4 44.6 47.2 3.1 4.3 5.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 4.8 5.2 5.4 -1.2 32.8 39.7 5.2 6.3 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------