***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2018.-25.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 13.7 17.8 15.1 155.6 78.6 69.8 3.3 6.7 11.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 13.0 16.4 13.5 148.9 77.3 68.5 2.9 6.1 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 13.7 18.3 14.9 152.3 78.0 67.6 3.1 6.7 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 20.2 27.2 21.1 176.8 82.3 77.1 4.3 8.8 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 8.4 15.2 14.9 126.3 72.2 66.5 3.3 6.9 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 19.0 21.0 15.7 133.4 73.9 70.2 5.1 9.7 16.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 13.1 16.2 13.3 148.5 77.2 68.9 3.0 6.2 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 16.6 26.9 16.7 120.6 70.4 66.0 7.1 13.9 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 47 53 100 12.6 15.9 15.5 137.6 74.8 68.3 3.2 6.7 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 8.9 14.6 15.2 118.5 69.7 64.5 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 47 53 100 15.1 17.4 15.2 125.3 71.9 66.9 3.5 7.6 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 19.0 21.4 16.2 128.2 72.7 68.1 4.2 9.2 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 11.5 18.2 15.1 112.4 68.7 64.7 4.3 9.2 16.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 20.9 25.4 17.4 137.3 74.6 65.3 5.8 11.3 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 24.8 43.9 24.1 228.4 88.9 84.1 3.7 8.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 15.5 17.3 15.6 126.0 72.2 67.7 3.5 7.6 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 13.6 16.5 12.9 145.9 76.6 68.3 3.1 6.5 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 10.4 15.9 15.3 115.4 68.7 62.9 4.4 8.6 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 14.6 18.5 14.2 149.2 77.4 67.9 3.8 7.5 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 12.2 19.0 18.7 112.6 67.9 63.1 4.6 9.9 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 13.0 16.7 15.7 146.7 76.8 68.6 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 15.2 18.1 13.5 140.5 75.5 67.2 4.8 8.5 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 13.3 17.3 15.4 151.9 77.9 67.7 3.4 6.7 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 45 55 100 16.8 20.5 15.8 135.4 74.0 65.4 4.1 8.6 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 12.6 15.7 16.0 141.8 75.7 68.6 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 20.3 21.4 15.8 122.5 71.4 67.5 4.6 9.9 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 12.9 16.8 15.3 149.4 77.4 69.4 3.0 6.3 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 19.6 27.2 21.1 190.8 83.8 79.1 4.3 8.6 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 16.8 25.9 16.0 112.4 67.9 62.4 6.4 13.4 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 13.2 17.2 13.9 151.9 77.9 68.8 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------