***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2018.-02.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 12.3 15.1 19.0 144.1 76.3 68.0 3.2 6.2 10.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 11.9 14.1 17.9 146.6 76.9 66.0 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 15.6 18.9 19.1 148.9 77.4 70.0 3.8 7.5 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 19.6 24.6 25.0 170.2 81.6 73.0 6.4 10.6 16.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 16.2 19.2 21.6 154.7 78.7 71.6 3.6 7.3 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 12.8 15.8 19.7 151.1 77.9 68.2 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 11.4 13.7 17.9 149.3 77.5 66.0 2.9 5.7 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 19.1 21.6 21.1 143.6 76.2 68.1 7.2 11.4 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 14.2 16.6 20.2 147.0 77.0 69.6 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 17.0 19.5 20.5 143.4 76.2 68.7 4.8 8.9 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 17.6 20.2 20.7 147.4 77.2 69.6 4.1 8.1 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 18.9 21.6 19.8 143.4 76.2 67.8 4.7 9.1 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 14.7 16.5 19.2 138.7 75.0 66.4 4.8 8.2 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 17.4 20.5 21.3 141.7 75.8 69.7 4.5 8.9 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 24.7 34.2 25.4 175.1 82.0 72.3 5.1 10.7 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 15.4 18.0 20.1 148.6 77.4 69.3 3.8 7.3 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 11.6 14.7 18.3 154.7 78.6 66.2 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 17.3 19.7 20.6 141.9 75.9 68.6 5.2 9.2 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 13.1 15.9 17.9 143.9 76.2 66.6 2.8 6.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 19.9 23.5 27.0 143.0 76.3 67.4 5.6 10.5 17.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 14.6 17.6 19.9 148.1 77.3 69.7 4.0 7.6 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 13.6 17.2 18.7 150.5 77.7 65.8 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 12.2 14.9 18.4 142.6 76.0 68.0 2.8 5.9 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 17.0 19.2 19.8 142.6 76.0 69.5 5.0 9.0 14.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 12.6 15.6 22.2 148.6 77.2 69.5 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 11.7 13.2 20.6 144.9 76.6 68.4 3.2 5.9 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 13.2 15.8 19.7 140.3 75.4 66.9 3.5 6.7 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 19.2 24.6 24.0 171.7 81.6 72.9 5.2 9.4 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 24.3 27.2 22.0 139.6 75.3 68.1 7.4 13.2 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 12.6 14.6 18.1 146.1 76.7 66.7 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------