***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2018.-09.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 8.7 11.0 16.5 112.2 67.0 55.9 3.8 6.7 10.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 7.7 10.9 14.9 119.5 69.6 58.6 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.9 11.5 16.0 110.7 66.4 56.0 3.3 6.6 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 9.7 12.8 17.2 109.0 66.2 56.5 4.1 7.7 12.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 9.5 11.3 16.9 104.2 63.9 55.2 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 7.4 10.0 15.2 111.2 66.7 57.5 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 7.9 11.1 14.7 119.1 69.4 58.1 3.3 6.1 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 11.5 12.7 16.4 97.6 61.3 52.4 4.7 8.9 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 7.6 9.3 17.7 105.2 64.2 55.1 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.5 10.7 17.4 101.3 62.7 53.3 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.9 10.4 15.8 101.4 62.7 54.0 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 9.8 11.2 14.9 98.4 61.8 53.8 3.3 7.2 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.9 12.0 15.3 102.4 63.5 55.7 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.7 12.7 17.4 96.6 61.2 53.0 4.6 8.9 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.0 14.6 16.8 114.0 68.4 56.7 2.7 6.7 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 8.7 10.1 15.1 101.5 63.1 55.0 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 9.4 13.3 14.4 120.1 70.0 59.5 4.2 7.5 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.7 9.5 17.6 97.4 61.5 52.2 3.6 6.6 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 8.8 11.7 15.0 115.9 68.4 57.9 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.4 20.6 93.8 60.0 49.9 4.5 7.9 12.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 8.6 10.6 17.1 107.6 65.3 55.9 3.9 6.9 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 9.7 14.0 15.5 119.1 69.7 59.2 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.4 10.5 15.3 107.6 65.4 55.7 3.4 6.4 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.6 11.9 16.8 99.4 62.3 53.5 4.7 8.3 13.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 7.1 9.1 18.0 110.3 66.3 56.3 3.2 5.7 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 9.6 11.8 14.8 103.8 64.1 56.7 3.8 7.3 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.9 11.1 17.0 110.7 66.4 55.9 3.9 6.9 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 7.4 10.2 16.0 109.1 66.4 56.2 2.4 5.4 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.9 13.5 18.3 95.3 60.5 51.1 5.8 10.0 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.9 10.7 15.4 117.7 68.9 57.8 3.6 6.2 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------